At the beginning of 2026, XRP market presents a paradoxical situation. From the Asian market perspective, South Korea's two leading exchanges Upbit and Bithumb have shown obvious declines in XRP reserves, which corresponds interestingly with the 560% surge cycle seen at the end of 2024 — the continuous position-reduction signals cannot be ignored.

However, on-chain data tells another story. XRP Ledger's whale transaction volume recently hit a three-month high, with daily transactions reaching 2802, indicating that major holders and institutional investors are actively deploying capital.

The turning point emerged on the US spot XRP ETF side. Since its launch on January 7, it experienced its first net outflow, with daily capital outflows reaching $40.8 million, showing that institutional enthusiasm has clearly cooled. When combining these data points together, the complexity of market sentiment becomes evident — retail and small-scale investors may be taking profits on rallies, while major institutions' entry appetite is also weakening, adding considerable variables to XRP's subsequent performance.