Prediction Market Polymarket Is Heating Up. After the U.S. Crackdown on Venezuela and the Overthrow of the Maduro Regime, a Mysterious Trader Profited Over $400,000 Through Precise Bets, Sparking a Market-Wide Repricing of Geopolitical Risks. Traders Are No Longer Focusing Only on Events That Have Already Occurred, but Are Beginning to Collectively Bet on the Trump Administration’s Next Targets—From Iran, Greenland, to Colombia and Cuba. Prediction Markets Are Becoming a Real-Time “Geopolitical Betting Board.”

The Geopolitical Expansion of Prediction Markets

The New Target List for Traders

Following the Venezuela incident, Polymarket quickly added multiple related contracts. According to the latest information, traders can now bet on the following questions: Will the U.S. quickly strike Colombia or Cuba, Will Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei step down before June 30, Can Trump “take” Greenland by year-end.

Among these, Iran-related contracts are receiving the most attention. According to monitoring, the probability of Khamenei’s downfall has risen from less than 20% before U.S. action against Venezuela to 36%. More notably, according to Lookonchain monitoring, 4 newly created wallets have bet on “U.S. strikes Iran before January 31, 2026” on Polymarket, with these wallets making no other predictions, fueling market speculation about possible insider information.

From Single Events to Systemic Risk Pricing

This is not merely an increase in trading volume, but a fundamental shift in trader mentality. Against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s more hardline foreign policy, investors are beginning to systematically reassess geopolitical risks. Prediction markets are gradually evolving from “post-event analysis” tools to “pre-event betting” platforms.

According to reports, contracts related to war exist in a legal and ethical gray area. But it is precisely this ambiguity that has made prediction markets a unique “intelligence tool”—anyone can place bets based on information they possess, with market prices in real time reflecting the collective judgment of global participants on various geopolitical events.

Controversies and Risks Facing the Platform

“Definition Ambiguity” Triggers Trust Crisis

Polymarket recently became embroiled in controversy over the Venezuela incident. The platform refused to classify the recent U.S. military raid on Venezuela, the arrest of President Maduro, as an “invasion,” despite American forces controlling state power and taking the head of state to the U.S. This decision resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in “invasion” type contracts being ruled as “not triggered,” sparking strong dissatisfaction among bettors and criticism for “redefining facts.”

This exposes a fundamental problem with prediction markets in handling real political and war events: ambiguous definitions, non-transparent judgment standards, and a regulatory vacuum. When the platform’s ruling power is held by a few, fairness and neutrality become big question marks.

Insider Trading Concerns

Four new wallets concentrated on betting Iran events, a mysterious trader profiting over $400,000 in the Venezuela incident—these phenomena all point to one question: Is there insider trading? While some argue that Polymarket is a “chain intelligence tool, accessible to anyone globally and completely transparent,” transparent on-chain transaction records cannot eliminate concerns about information asymmetry.

Additionally, Polycule (a trading bot project based on Polymarket) was recently hacked, resulting in $230,000 in user funds being affected, which also reflects that the ecosystem around prediction markets still faces technical security risks.

Platform’s Commercial Expansion and Politicization

From Geopolitics to Real Estate

Notably, Polymarket is actively expanding its business scope. The platform recently reached an exclusive partnership with Dow Jones Media to provide prediction market data to media including Barron’s and The Wall Street Journal. Meanwhile, the platform announced the launch of a real estate prediction market, partnering with Parcl (invested by Coinbase), allowing users to bet on price movements in specific urban areas.

This indicates that Polymarket is expanding from pure political event prediction to broader economic fields. But this expansion also means the platform is gradually becoming part of mainstream finance and media ecosystems.

Platform Position Under Political Context

Worth noting is that Polymarket obtained approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to return to the U.S. market after former President Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., invested and joined the board. This background makes the platform face more political sensitivity issues when handling geopolitical events related to the Trump administration.

Summary

The heating up of Polymarket reflects a deeper phenomenon: prediction markets are becoming a “pricing tool” for geopolitics. Traders encouraged by successful bets on the Venezuela incident are beginning to systematically bet on the Trump administration’s next moves. However, the platform’s problems of ambiguous definitions, insider trading risks, and politicization also remind us—when betting boards involve real wars and political upheavals, the “transparency” and “fairness” of prediction markets are far from ideal. This market still needs clearer rules, stricter regulation, and deeper ethical reflection.