The dust has settled! The US quantitative easing has officially come to an end, and the probability of a rate cut in December has soared to 91%.
Remember? On October 29, Powell said, "a rate cut is not yet decided," and at that time the market only gave it a 35% chance. Now? The situation has completely reversed.
I believe this is a watershed in the Fed's policy—from focusing solely on inflation to prioritizing employment. The September employment data released on November 20 was a bit sobering: only 119,000 new jobs, far below the level in the first half of the year. Unemployment rate? 4.4%, hitting a near four-year high.
Once inflation is no longer a shackle, the pace of rate cuts may accelerate. The market trend in 2026 may well depend on this wave of action...
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The dust has settled! The US quantitative easing has officially come to an end, and the probability of a rate cut in December has soared to 91%.
Remember? On October 29, Powell said, "a rate cut is not yet decided," and at that time the market only gave it a 35% chance. Now? The situation has completely reversed.
I believe this is a watershed in the Fed's policy—from focusing solely on inflation to prioritizing employment. The September employment data released on November 20 was a bit sobering: only 119,000 new jobs, far below the level in the first half of the year. Unemployment rate? 4.4%, hitting a near four-year high.
Once inflation is no longer a shackle, the pace of rate cuts may accelerate. The market trend in 2026 may well depend on this wave of action...