Has the A-shares market bottomed out in the short term? Here are the strategies from the top ten brokerages.

Ask AI · How will the Iran-Iraq conflict affect A-share market performance in the short term?

Caixin News, April 6: This week, China’s A-share market has been choppy and trending lower. Judging by major broad-based index categories, most of the main broad-based A-share indices posted declines this week. The Shanghai 50 Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the CSI 300 declined relatively less, while the ChiNext Index, the STAR 50 Index, and the CSI 500 declined relatively more. What will the market do next? Let’s look at the latest strategy summaries from the top ten brokerages.

CITIC Securities: Narrow the allocation scope, and stay committed to China’s manufacturing advantages

In terms of ETFs, currently, only ETFs that remain above the 30-week moving average are those in communications, chemical, non-ferrous metals, oil & gas, and semiconductor materials and equipment, among others. Basically, they correspond to a few themes: North American AI, clean energy and chemical industries, and upstream resources. After this round of rebounds, innovative drugs have returned above the 30-week moving average; their industrial logic is relatively independent and has shown a certain degree of liquidity-insensitivity. Dividend-style items (such as coal and green electricity) have also remained above trend lines. In fact, even if the Iran-Iraq war ends, we only need to focus on three issues in the chemical-and-energy chain: price transmission, resource pricing, and AI hardware demand—because market capital has already made its choice.

On positioning, we are firmly building around pricing weight in China’s manufacturing advantage industries. Our recommended base holdings still focus on industries with China-side share advantages, high and difficult-to-reset overseas production costs, and supply elasticity that is easily influenced by policy. The foundation is new energy, chemical industry, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals. The recent liquidity shock has pushed many valuations back into cheaper areas. The extreme negative interpretation and narrative are somewhat similar to the overseas-expansion themes after April 7 last year, which again created a massive expectation gap and low valuation. On top of these base holdings, we recommend continuing to increase exposure to low-valuation factors, with a focus on insurance, brokerages, and power. In addition, we remind investors to pay attention to the innovative drug sector; the correlation between its stock prices and liquidity shocks is relatively weak, and the industrial logic is still progressing.

China Merchants Securities: In mid-to-late April, market focus will shift to the high-growth areas in the Q1 earnings reports

Looking ahead to April, external risks facing A-shares have not yet been substantively resolved. The United States is currently accelerating military mobilization. As the “USS Bush” carrier strike group completes deployment in mid-April, the likelihood of implementing ground operations rises significantly, and there is a risk that the U.S.-Iran conflict will escalate beyond expectations. Against this backdrop, further upward pressure on oil prices will intensify market concerns about global economic stagflation. If the U.S. military launches ground attacks in mid-to-late April—whether because combat casualties exceed expectations, or because a surge in oil prices triggers a deep pullback in global equities—then the Trump administration may be forced to shift toward a de-escalation strategy, and the market may experience a typical dilemma-reversal scenario.

On the domestic side, after the conclusion of the Two Sessions in March and the release of the “15th Five-Year Plan” outline, key investment projects are expected to land faster, becoming the core driving force for a rebound in domestic investment growth. If external shocks significantly increase economic uncertainty, there are expectations that the end of April Politburo meeting could further add to stabilizing-growth policies.

Overall, the lower half of April will be a critical time window for marginal improvements in both domestic and international conditions. After external shocks fade, the market’s focus in mid-to-late April will shift to areas with high growth in the Q1 earnings reports. Based on current data, resource sectors such as non-ferrous metals and petroleum refining and chemicals, as well as new energy, optical communications, and the semiconductor industry chain, are expected to be the industries with the most impressive growth in earnings momentum.

Industrial Bank Securities: Seeking high-quality assets “wronged by the emotional inertia” in this round of conflict

We are looking for high-quality assets that have been “wronged” due to emotional inertia in this round of conflict, and gradually focusing portfolio structure toward directions with certainty in business performance. This is not only the core allocation logic during April’s earnings disclosure period, but also the logic shift the market needs to repeatedly reinforce and value once the pricing environment changes this year.

Combining the price changes since March, we screen for leading industries that have been hit more by the external shock; mainly concentrated in: AI (domestic semiconductor computing power, PCB, and mid-to-lower stream sectors—gaming and consumer electronics), advanced manufacturing (new energy, defense and military industries), cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, glass and fiberglass), service consumption & new consumption (retail, accessories, pet economy), and non-bank financials.

Haitong Securities: Risk is still imbalanced, especially insufficient pricing for downward revisions to growth

Current pricing: Risk remains imbalanced—especially pricing is insufficient for downward revisions to growth.

Compared with simply replicating historical experience, the difference in this cycle is that the starting point for global demand is lower, the risk of overseas wage-and-price cycles and inflation losing anchor is lower, and the necessity for aggressive rate hikes is lower, so pressure for a deep recession is not large. But precisely because the global economy is not strong, compared with the one-year transition around the early stages of the late 1970s and the six-month interval in 2022, the timing for global growth to be revised downward in this cycle may come earlier, making timing and rhythm control more important.

Tradable expectation gaps: Rebalancing needs on domestic assets’ internal and external demand

1. Base-holding products with stronger certainty and the highest consensus: energy and power chain. 2) Expectation gaps in domestic and external demand. In the domestic-demand chain, increase allocations to certain essential consumer goods with low cost/low-share trading and low-urgency business-cycle volatility; also to domestic-demand items where trading data improves and policy hedges benefit. For external-demand, avoid selective areas with large exposure to Asia and the Middle East and weaker “pricing-ability”—such as consumer electronics, textile manufacturing, and household appliances (dark-panel TVs and small household appliances)—and look for “wrongly priced” opportunities within midstream capital goods sectors with stronger hedging capacity. 3) The main line that is temporarily affected by liquidity pressure but has not changed the medium-term trend: the AI chain and RMB appreciation—pullbacks may provide opportunities to accumulate positions.

Everbright Securities: The bottom in the A-share market is highly likely already identified in the short term; the next phase is likely mainly choppy repairs

The A-share market’s bottom is highly likely already identified in the short term, and the subsequent phase will likely focus on choppy and corrective repairs. April is the traditional “decision window” for the A-share market; two core events will determine the market’s direction for the medium term:

First, a concentrated disclosure of annual reports and Q1 reports by listed companies. The market is expected to gradually shift from the previous theme-driven expectations to fundamentals-based pricing.

Second, a major meeting convened in late April will set the tone for the full-year economic development. The market broadly expects that policies will continue with a moderately loose monetary stance and an actively supportive fiscal stance. Policies such as the “eight measures” to boost consumption, and support for consumer goods to be replaced with upgrades through ultra-long special treasury bonds, are expected to continue to land and take effect.

For allocation, we can build positioning around two main themes: “benefiting from high oil prices + earnings certainty.” First, a broad energy theme, including industries directly benefiting from oil price increases such as coal, coal-chemical industries, oil & gas, and shipping ports, as well as new energy sectors with an energy-substitution logic such as solar photovoltaic, energy storage, wind power, and nuclear power. Second, a best-in-class technology theme, focusing on areas like electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), communications, and power equipment (AI power and energy storage)—sectors that have strong industrial trend support and strong capability to deliver earnings.

Kaiyuan Securities: The time to position on the left side has arrived; seize opportunities with ΔG technology + high dividend yield

The “second-order derivative” in how the war unfolds has already started to change. Of course, this is not yet confirmation from the right side. But from an allocation perspective, left-side signals have already appeared, so you can be somewhat more proactive than in the earlier period. Still, we need to emphasize: left-side signals are an important timing point for relative-return games, but right-side signals are the best entry timing for absolute returns. In the short term, the technology names that were most severely damaged earlier often benefit most. In the long term, what truly deserves attention is ΔG growth. If oil prices and related implied volatility continue to fall, market risk appetite may be further repaired, and growth will likely be one of the directions with the biggest repair elasticity.

Investment thesis—The time to position on the left side has arrived: seize opportunities with ΔG technology + high dividend yield

For the upcoming operations, we believe: the conflict has not ended, but the worst pricing phase may be passing. You can start to attempt attack-style allocations on the left side, but you should not be overly aggressive. Meanwhile, technology growth remains the most important direction to pay attention to.

Allocation thinking:

(1) Growth is still the strongest main line in this cycle, but the investment approach must change: ΔG + profit re-distribution. Focus on: power capital (power equipment, energy metals), computing power capital (storage, semiconductors, robotics, liquid cooling), platform applications (Hong Kong-listed internet platforms), innovative drugs;

(2) We emphasize that high dividend yield in 2026 is better than in 2025. Pay attention to high dividend yield that considers ΔG: coal, insurance, media, petroleum and chemicals, and transportation;

(3) “Options” after potential bottoming of real estate prices: optional consumption and service-consumption recovery driven by stabilized balance sheets (high-end commercial properties, outdoor sports, tourism, hotels, catering, etc.).

Hua Jin Securities: A-shares may have already seen the bottom in the short term

Based on the current situation, fundamentals may continue to improve, overseas risks have been released and pessimistic sentiment has already been quite fully priced in, and policy is relatively supportive—so A-shares may have already seen the bottom in the short term.

(1) In the short term, economic activity and earnings may continue on an upward recovery trend. First, the economy may continue to recover: manufacturing business sentiment could rise further; meanwhile, real estate sales may stabilize in the short term, and with the construction peak season approaching, infrastructure investment may maintain a relatively high growth rate. Second, corporate earnings may continue to rise: first, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI may continue to rebound, and industrial firms’ profit growth may continue to recover; second, with commodity prices staying at a high level and technology hardware business sentiment remaining strong, A-share Q1 earnings growth may continue to be in a recovery cycle.

(2) In the short term, external risk release and pessimism could have already been fairly sufficient, and policy may still be relatively positive. First, external risks may have been released relatively fully: first, the capital market’s expectations for further escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict are lower; second, in the short term, the likelihood that U.S.-Iran negotiations reach an agreement and the conflict ends is still present. Second, valuation and sentiment adjustments have been fairly sufficient but not to historical ultra-low levels. Third, short-term policy may still remain positive.

(3) In the short term, liquidity may remain relatively loose, and funds in the stock market may return somewhat.

Industry allocation: In the short term, continue to allocate to high-quality technology and some cyclical sectors on dips.

(1) During bottom-chopping periods, high-quality technology and cyclical industries may be relatively superior. First, looking back at history: during bottom-chopping periods, policy support, upward-moving industrial trends, and industries with leading earnings growth rankings have tended to perform better. Second, looking at the current situation: in the short term, sectors such as electronics, communications, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment may be relatively attractive.

(2) Q1 earnings growth may be relatively high in sectors such as transportation, non-ferrous metals, electronics, computer software and services, and defense-related industries. First, industries such as steel, computers, media, and defense-related sectors have relatively high consensus forecasts for Q1 earnings growth according to Wind. Second, industries such as transportation, non-ferrous metals, TMT, and utilities have relatively high cumulative year-on-year growth in industrial enterprises’ profits in January-February 2026. Third, sectors such as real estate, coal, and defense and military industry this year’s Q1 earnings growth may benefit from low base effects. Fourth, upstream industries such as oil refining and petrochemicals and non-ferrous metals and chemicals may see improved business sentiment in Q1, while midstream industries such as electronics and communications may see improvements in business sentiment in Q1.

(3) In the short term, we recommend continuing to allocate on dips: first, sectors with supportive policy and upward industry trends such as communications (AI hardware), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), power & new energy (AI power, energy storage), innovative drugs, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and defense and military (commercial aerospace); second, low-valuation dividend sectors such as coal, power, and banks.

China Galaxy: The market will most likely maintain a choppy and differentiated pattern, making it hard for a sustained trend rally to emerge

For the current U.S.-Iran conflict, a clear endpoint is unlikely to be visible in April, or even across the entire second quarter. The tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already fallen to roughly 3%—a normal level. Oil prices are trading in a range of $90 to $110 per barrel in the high zone, which has become the baseline scenario. The market has basically priced in the “inflation shock,” but concerns about the “growth shock”—that is, high oil prices suppressing global demand—will likely become the next risk to watch. Against this backdrop, Hong Kong-listed stocks are in a threefold window: geopolitical risk is repeatedly fluctuating, the next financial results season is validating fundamentals, and capital flows are differentiating. Overall, the market will most likely keep a choppy and differentiated pattern, making it hard to see a trend-driven rally. Investment strategy should shift from the past “broad-based up and rebound” approach to “earn from structures with certainty.”

In terms of investment strategy, we should grasp three main lines: First, cyclical sectors—focus on safe-haven assets such as gold and energy, and on chemical products where supply is tightening (such as methanol and polyethylene). Meanwhile, temporarily hold back on military-industry sectors and key metals where volatility is too intense. Second, financials and discretionary consumption. Financials (banks, insurance) have valuations at historical lows (PB around 0.6x), dividend yields above 4%, and sufficient safety margin—making them suitable for a base allocation, but you should not chase. In discretionary consumption, we recommend selecting automotive supply-chain targets with strong export performance and earnings that have already been validated, while avoiding individual stocks that have issued profit warnings or where growth is slowing down. Third, the technology sector. Prioritize AI application-end companies that already have commercialization and high earnings delivery; internet leaders being added to at increased pace by southbound capital can serve as a defensive base holding. For upstream hardware like semiconductors, where capital expenditure may be too large, profitability concerns exist, and geopolitical risks persist, we suggest postponing left-side positioning and waiting until the inflection point becomes clear.

BOC Securities: Be patient with short-term holdings; save capacity for long-term positioning

The market has not yet escaped the geopolitical turmoil period. For short-term holdings, you still need patience, and leave resources for medium-to-long-term positioning.

In the short term, overseas market risk appetite will continue to face pressure. The market may further and gradually price in stagflation and even recession expectations. At present, the contest for control over the Strait of Hormuz and the crude oil supply-chain crisis have not yet produced a readily implementable solution, and market concerns about crude oil supply keep heating up. As geopolitical uncertainty intensifies and energy costs rise, risk appetite and earnings expectations for developed-market equity assets—represented by U.S. stocks—will continue to be suppressed, further pushing the logic of overseas risk assets pricing stagflation to transition toward recession.

Dongwu Securities: Seek rebalancing and adopt a hedging strategy of “broad energy + technology narrow allocation scope”

The current geopolitical situation carries a high degree of uncertainty. A balanced allocation approach is more prudent. We recommend hedging using a “broad energy + technology narrow allocation scope” strategy.

1. Broad energy: In historical global stagflation environments outside Shanghai—broad energy has been the best-performing large-category sector. In this cycle, the continued escalation of geopolitical conflict has pushed oil prices higher, further catalyzing the logic of “energy substitution.” Focus on areas such as power generation, coal-chemical industries, and power grid equipment. In addition, China has already built globally leading structural advantages in the energy transition. The new energy sector itself is also supported by solid industrial business conditions. Under the backdrop of improving economics on the generation side and leading energy storage battery technology, we focus on sectors such as solar photovoltaic, energy storage, lithium batteries, wind power, and nuclear power.

2. Technology narrow allocation scope: In an environment where expectations for the inflation middle point rise, technology stocks may see differentiation. In other words, names that “tell stories at high levels” may undergo adjustments, but the main-line direction—strong industry trends with moats, pricing power, and earnings—still has the potential to outperform and pass through the cycle. At present, in specific technology sub-sectors where supply-demand mismatches are prominent and that have earnings support, there is some allocation value.

(Caixin)