Refined oil products will face a price adjustment window. Institutions expect that over the next three months, U.S. crude oil will decline in a stepped manner.

A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will begin at 24:00 on April 7. Institutions predict that oil prices in this round will most likely be raised.

在 the previous oil price adjustment day (March 23), the National Development and Reform Commission said on that day that since March 9, when domestic refined oil prices were adjusted, international benchmark crude oil prices have risen sharply, especially due to the intensification of conflicts between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Crude oil prices in the Middle East have hit record highs one after another. To mitigate the impact of abnormal international oil price surges, reduce the burden on downstream users, and ensure steady economic operation and social well-being, based on maintaining the existing pricing mechanism framework, temporary control measures have been taken for domestic refined oil prices. After the controls, for private vehicle owners, based on an oil tank capacity of 50—60 liters, filling up with 92-octane gasoline would cost about 40—50 yuan less.

A report from Longzhong Information shows that during this pricing adjustment cycle, international crude oil prices have remained on an upward trend, and refined oil prices are also expected to rise. As of April 2, the reference crude oil average price during the cycle was 109.06 US dollars per barrel, up 2.24% from the previous cycle. It is expected that when the adjustment window opens, the theoretical increase in corresponding refined oil prices will be around 130 yuan per ton, meaning this round is very likely to be an increase.

Jinlianchuang states that recently, crude oil as a whole has shown a pattern of surging higher followed by a pullback, with the weekly average up on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Although high oil prices have started to suppress some petroleum consumption, overall demand still shows strong resilience. It is expected that global crude oil demand will gradually rise to about 106 million barrels per day and remain at a high level. Because the decline in demand is limited, it is difficult to completely offset the impact caused by supply contraction, so the overall market remains in a very tight balance or even a state of shortage.

Longzhong Information predicts that according to China’s domestic refined oil pricing adjustment mechanism, on April 8 the corresponding refined oil price increase will be around 130 yuan per ton, which will mark the sixth increase this year. If this round’s price is increased, using a 70-liter fuel tank as an example, private vehicle owners will pay about 6.7 yuan more to fill up.

China News Agency (Chinanews) and Jingwei notice that since this year began, domestic fuel prices have already undergone six rounds of adjustments, namely “five increases and one pause.” Domestic gasoline and diesel prices, per ton, have risen by 2320 and 2235 yuan respectively compared with the end of last year. If this round of pricing is increased as expected, the pricing pattern for 2026 will change to “six increases and one pause.”

According to the “ten working days” principle, the next retail refined oil pricing adjustment window will open at 24:00 on April 21, 2026.

Looking ahead, a Longzhong Information research report shows that on the U.S. side, it has said it will not get entangled with Iran for too long; the intensity of future conflict is expected to decrease. The issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is also being negotiated among multiple countries. Combined with the high recent volatility in international oil prices, it is expected that the probability of the next refined oil price adjustment being a decrease is relatively higher.

Jinlianchuang believes that regarding the ceasefire, all the various diplomatic signals released by the U.S. and Iran are ambiguous. Therefore, uncertainty in Middle East geopolitical conditions and shipping still remains. If the U.S. ends the war with Iran within a short time, oil prices will accelerate downward; otherwise, they will continue to surge.

A research report from Zhuochuang Information says that at present, the core differences between the U.S. and Iran are hard to reconcile, and the fighting has fallen into a stalemate. The navigation efficiency through the Strait of Hormuz has stayed at a persistently low level, and there have not been clear signs of mitigation in geopolitical risk. Against this backdrop, international oil prices may continue to trade at a high level with wide-range fluctuations. Investors should especially be alert to the possibility that the fighting escalates beyond expectations, which could trigger extreme price swings. Entering May and June, geopolitical events may gradually cool down, market risk-avoidance sentiment may ease, and crude oil prices are expected to retreat gradually from the high-price range. It is expected that over the next three months, the average monthly prices of U.S. crude oil will be 94.69 US dollars per barrel, 86.37 US dollars per barrel, and 72.51 US dollars per barrel respectively, overall showing a stepwise downward trend.

（Source: Chinanews and Jingwei）