Major Perspective on the Gold Market! Buy Alert: Top U.S. Economist Says Gold Trends Are About to Reverse

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Given gold’s traditional role as a “safe-haven asset” and a hedge against various risks, its performance in March was somewhat unexpected—when the Iran war broke out and expanded, the price of this commodity instead fell by more than 13%.

（Screenshot source: Finbold）

Despite the drop—and with further pullbacks on April 1 and 2 triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest televised address—top economist Peter Schiff said in a post on the X platform late on Wednesday that gold’s price action is about to reverse.

（Gold price chart screenshot source: Finbold）

Specifically, the expert noted that gold “will break the current trend and rise alongside oil,” referring to the diverging pattern in which gold falls while fossil fuels rise.

It’s worth noting that West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), Brent crude, and energy company stocks are currently among the main winners in the conflict, with both oil prices and stock prices rising significantly. For example, WTI crude has surged by about 41% over the past 30 days, while Brent crude futures have jumped by about 38%.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index fell by 4.45% over the same period, while the energy sector rose by 4%.

If Schiff’s assessment is correct, gold’s next leg of gains could last until 2026

If Peter Schiff’s prediction comes true, gold may soon enter a round of sustained upward momentum lasting for a relatively long time. Although the messaging from the Trump administration has been contradictory—up to April 1, Trump’s remarks had at one point softened, driving a sharp rebound in non-energy sectors—his latest address indicates that the war will only escalate further.

As of April 2, the situation suggests that the U.S. Department of Defense seems unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump’s comments also imply he is unwilling to address the interruption of this critical waterway. That means supply-chain problems could persist until 2026.

In addition, Iran has repeatedly said it does not seek a ceasefire and has demanded that any peace agreement must include Lebanon; meanwhile, Israel is reportedly hoping to exclude its northern neighbor from the negotiations. This indicates that, for now, there is almost no path to easing the situation.

Returning to Peter Schiff, his remarks on X not only predict that gold will rise, but also suggest that the war will last long, while most industries and assets will still move downward.

According to his comments, although the Trump administration has repeatedly claimed it has “won the most glorious victory in the history of the war,” the current conflict is actually in a phase of escalation again.

（Screenshot source: X）

Why gold may not reverse its recent downtrend

On the other hand, it’s necessary to point out that Schiff’s forecast that gold will turn around its decline may not necessarily come true. This economist is a well-known “gold bull,” and in most cases he has been bullish on gold.

Although his judgment has generally been fairly accurate—aside from this most recent round of decline—and gold has performed well for much of the 21st century (especially over the past five years), it may be precisely this sustained rise that weakens gold’s “safe-haven asset” attribute, making it more sensitive to risk.

Another view is that gold is difficult to reverse comes from another Wall Street expert—a famous Tesla (Tesla) bear and Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research.

He believes that the reason for gold’s recent volatility is broad market selloffs triggered by the Iran war.

On the evening of April 1, Johnson briefly summarized this logic on X: “War ⇒ risk rises ⇒ asset prices fall ⇒ you need to obtain cash (U.S. dollars) to meet margin calls ⇒ sell everything (including gold).”

If GLJ Research’s analysis holds, then during the current adjustment—which is significantly intensifying—or before the market broadly rebounds and margin pressure eases, gold will be hard-pressed to achieve a trend reversal.

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责任编辑：Zhu Hunan