Top 10 Brokerage Strategies: The Market Awaits the Bottoming Opportunity! Volatility Does Not Change Resilience, Focus on Medium- and Long-Term Deployment

**CITIC Securities: Stay focused on China’s advantaged manufacturing as allocation continues **

There is still some possibility for TACO, but market participants’ patience with risk has already been largely consumed. War is expected to be nearing its end by the end of this month, but the likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz being “weaponized,” as well as intermittent disruptions across the supply chain, is increasing. At present, among the five fundamental clues (dividends, going abroad, AI, PPI, and domestic consumption), only PPI, domestically produced AI, and consumption have not been priced in sufficiently. After the war ends, the most important fundamental driver among them is the transmission chain of oil → PPI → corporate earnings; domestically produced AI is a relatively independent industrial change, while trades around domestic consumption are likely to lag behind PPI trading. Of course, the “PPI → corporate earnings” trade will only begin once oil prices peak after the war has eased. As the market cools, allocations should gradually narrow their scope, continuing to focus on China’s advantaged manufacturing.

**Guangfa Securities: The market may still need some time to oscillate and bottom out **

In the near term, the market still differs from the bottom-form “V-shaped reversal” seen last April during the period of “reciprocal tariffs.” There remains uncertainty in the current war situation. During the earlier phase of the market’s decline, trading volume did not show anything particularly obvious, and regulatory capital has not yet sent large-scale stabilization signals. We expect the market will still need some time to churn and grind out a base in order to adequately digest sentiment and rotate holdings through trading turnover.

The premise for this year’s A-share market trajectory to follow “April’s decision” is that the global economy should not move toward a full-blown risk-off, meaning risk appetite in the market cannot deteriorate too much. Among the more critical judgments is this: will high oil prices trigger a U.S. recession, and will the global market further take additional earnings downward revisions? We believe that, at present, there is insufficient basis for this concern. Historically, war—high oil prices—high inflation—rate hikes do not, every time, lead to a U.S. economic recession. If the U.S. does not experience a clear recession within the year, then after global assets have recently corrected near-term liquidity expectations, the situation is unlikely to evolve into a comprehensive collapse. In that case, the structural opportunities behind the A-share “April’s decision” remain.

**China Merchants Securities: Conflict not yet over, and fortunes reversed in dire straits **

Looking ahead to April, external risks facing the A-share market have not been substantially eased, and the risk of a further escalation beyond expectations exists in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Against this backdrop, further upward pressure on oil prices will intensify market concerns about global stagflation. If the U.S. military launches ground operations in mid to late April, whether due to battlefield casualties exceeding expectations or because a surge in oil prices triggers a deep pullback across global stock markets, the Trump administration may be forced to shift toward a de-escalation strategy, and the market may play out a typical “difficulties-to-opportunity” reversal行情.

On the domestic front, after the March Two Sessions concluded and the “15th Five-Year Plan” outline was released, subsequent priority investment projects are expected to accelerate implementation, becoming a core driver for the rebound in domestic investment growth. If external shocks cause a significant increase in economic uncertainty, the late-April meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee may see expectations of further policy ramp-ups to stabilize growth. Taken together, late April will become a key time window for marginal improvements in both domestic and external conditions. Once external shocks fade, the market focus in mid to late April will shift to the fields of year-on-year high growth in the first-quarter reports. Based on current data, resource sectors such as nonferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemicals, along with new energy, optical communications, and the semiconductor industry chain, are expected to be the areas with the most eye-catching earnings growth rates.

**Industrial Securities: We should pay more attention to the opportunity where a “market bottom” is established and bottom-fishing allocations emerge from potential escalation of the situation **

The market does not need to revisit whether this conflict will evolve into a long-term, large-scale comprehensive war just because of recent statements by Trump and the surge in oil prices; “possible escalation in the short term, and degradation in the medium term” remains the baseline scenario. For April, what we should focus on more in terms of the big picture is the opportunity that arises from potential escalation leading to the establishment of a “market bottom” and bottom layouts, as well as the chance that after both sides enter substantive negotiations, the market gradually returns to normal and repair-driven upside opportunities begin under the premise of “I am the main driver.”

Therefore, identifying high-quality assets in this round of conflict that have been “mistakenly sold off” due to sentiment inertia, and gradually focusing the positioning structure toward directions with confirmed cyclical and business certainty—this is not only the core allocation logic for April’s earnings disclosure period, but also the logic change that the market will need to repeatedly reinforce its understanding and pay more attention to after the pricing environment shifts this year.

Combining the price gains and losses since March, we filter high-quality sectors that are more affected by external shocks in this round, mainly: AI (domestic semiconductor computing power, PCBs, and mid-to-lower stream—games, consumer electronics), advanced manufacturing (new energy, defense and military industry), cyclicals (nonferrous metals, chemical industry, steel, glass, fiberglass), services consumption & new consumption (retail, accessories, pet economy), and non-bank financials, etc.

**Guojin Securities: Resolving the energy contradiction is the true resilient asset **

The market structure today is not a steady state. If the fighting escalates, the so-called resilient assets today will also face catch-up declines. If de-escalation occurs, it may not be the best solution. In fact, if the biggest source of the shock is energy, then resolving the energy contradiction is the true resilient asset; the increase in energy’s share in global GDP is highly likely to happen.

Based on the information available today, considering the combined expected value under two scenarios and adding our expectations for a more optimistic market, we make the following recommendations: I. As the world enters an energy restocking cycle, new and old energy sources are likely to resonate (oil, oil shipping, coal, lithium batteries, wind/solar, and energy storage); II. After the “U.S. dollar illusion” gradually fades, the reversal of the financial attributes of commodities combined with the recovery in demand for copper, aluminum, and gold; III. Reassessment of China’s manufacturing: machinery equipment and chemical products. When China’s manufacturing becomes the global “keystone,” the sustained upside beyond expectations in exports and the return of funds will also bring new drivers to domestic consumption that has been subdued for a long time. Look for structural opportunities after turning points where suppressing factors are reversed, such as tourism and scenic spots, seasoning fermentation products, beer and other alcoholic beverages, pharmaceutical commercial distributors, medical aesthetics, etc.

**CITIC Guotou Securities: The key for the market “spear” and “shield” still lies in crude oil **

With uncertainty in the conflict still high and the market’s direction not yet clear, global equity markets are expected to remain in a high-volatility environment, and the A-share market may show a pattern of oscillation and rotation. Changes in the crude oil price trend will remain a key variable affecting the market’s near-term structure. If, under expectations of de-escalation in the conflict, crude oil prices stabilize and fall, and easing expectations rise again, this would be favorable for the repair of growth stock rallies. From the internal environment, the core logic remains unchanged: policy support, capital entering the market, and the reassessment of China’s assets. External conflict has not shaken the long-term “slow bull” foundation of the A-share market. At the same time, as A-share companies enter the concentrated disclosure period for first-quarter earnings in April, the market’s clues will gradually shift toward fundamental verification. Sectors with high earnings certainty and sustained improvement in business conditions will become the core direction where capital focuses.

Allocation opportunities: First, track how the U.S.-Iran conflict trajectory drives stronger energy and substitutable demand—focus on coal, coal chemical industry, new energy, shipping and ports, oil and gas, etc.; also focus on the valuation repair opportunities in the nonferrous metals sector. Second, defensive assets may have a phased advantage—focus on financials (banks), public utilities, and transportation. Third, follow the logic of technological innovation, independent controllability, and confirmed industrial trends—focus on power equipment, energy storage, storage, semiconductors, computing power, and communication equipment, etc. For consumption sectors, focus on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fisheries, food and beverage, and home appliances. Over the medium to long term, we still like the dual main lines of the technology sector driven by industrial catalysts and the cyclical sector driven by price-increase clues.

**Caitong Securities: Focus on the potential bottom-building window at the end of April **

We expect that the situation by the end of this month may become clearer (regardless of who has the advantage). Around the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee in early-mid April, markets may trade in support from policies, expectations of risk prevention policies, and possible提前 trading of potential positives from Trump’s visit to China. Combined with the normal April to early May adjustment trend based on historical patterns, the potential bottom-building window may be at the end of the month. Also, note the early-May meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which may be another window where negative factors are largely “priced out” (specifically, the severity of concerns about inflation and rate hikes).

Against the backdrop of liquidity disturbances and pressure on risk appetite, the allocation should adopt a “HALOPLUS” strategy: defense with HALO free cash flow and offense with less crowded growth. On the defensive side, HALO selects free-cash-flow assets with low correlation to TMT, higher cash flows, asset-heavy characteristics, and higher entry barriers, to comfortably hedge against the conflict. This includes chemical industry (agrochemicals, active pharmaceutical ingredients), traditional Chinese medicine, shipping, the power grid, and so on. On the offense side, “PLUS” focuses on growth directions where trading heat remains low and where sensitivity to interest rates is relatively low. Focus on new energy with low medium-term positioning overcrowding (including space photovoltaics), defense and military industry (including commercial space), and construction machinery—areas of China’s advantaged manufacturing.

(Source: Securities Times)