Q1-Q3 2026 China Real Estate Company Investment and Land Acquisition Analysis Report

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1. The land auction premium rates have fallen back, approaching the average monthly level in the fourth quarter of last year

2. The declines in the thresholds for total value and amount have narrowed significantly, while the threshold for area is still expanding

3. Top 100 investors: land acquisition amount of 159.6 billion yuan

4. Fewer than 30% of the top 100 real estate developers have acquired land; Yuexiu Property and Poly Development acquired more than 10 billion yuan each

5. In the second quarter, we will continue to maintain a locally warm upturn in land acquisitions, with an overall cautious investment posture

Interpretation

Preface: In the first quarter of 2026, developers’ land acquisition amounts year over year were cut in half, with fewer than 30% of developers taking action to acquire land. Investment maintained a cautious stance. The core segments are locally hot, but the weak performance in third- and fourth-tier cities persists; this trend may continue into the second quarter.

1

The land auction premium rates have fallen back, approaching the average monthly level in the fourth quarter of last year

In March, the average land auction premium rate was 3.1%, down 6.1 percentage points over the full month of February. On the one hand, this is because the transaction volume of urban renewal land plots in first- and second-tier cities increased. On the other hand, it is because the share of transactions in third- and fourth-tier cities rose. However, some plots still maintain local heat—for example, residential land in Hangzhou’s Chengdong New City and Qianjiang Century City had premium rates of 51% and 16%, respectively.

2

The declines in the thresholds for total value and amount have narrowed significantly, while the threshold for area is still expanding

As of the end of March, the threshold value for the added land reserve total value among 100 representative sample enterprises was 1.04 billion yuan, up 4% from the previous month but down 11% year over year. The year-over-year decline has narrowed by nearly 10 percentage points compared with January–February. The threshold value for the added total price among the top 100 was 510 million yuan, basically in line with the same period last year. This shows that after high-quality plots are released in core cities, developers’ enthusiasm for land acquisition has increased. By contrast, the threshold value for added gross floor area among the top 100 was 1.4 million square meters, down 18% year over year from the previous month; combined with the distribution of developers’ land acquisitions, the low-tier land market remains relatively sluggish.

3

Top 100 investors: land acquisition amount of 159.6 billion yuan

Although the pace of land supply rebounded after the Spring Festival, compared with the “high frequency, high quality” pattern shown in multiple hot cities’ land supply in the first quarter of last year, there is still a significant gap. Therefore, in terms of developers’ land acquisition, the declines in total value, amount, and area versus the same period last year are all fairly significant.

Among the top 100 real estate developers by added land reserves, the sums of their added total value, total price, and building area among the top 100 were 322.5 billion yuan, 159.6 billion yuan, and 23.97 million square meters, respectively. Compared with the situation in January–February, March’s land acquisition indicators have recovered notably, but the year-over-year declines remain large. From January to March, the total value, amount, and area declined year over year by 48%, 50%, and 29%, respectively.

4

Fewer than 30% of the top 100 real estate developers have acquired land; Yuexiu Property and Poly Development acquired more than 10 billion yuan each

From the perspective of the types of enterprises acquiring land, the pattern of “central state-owned enterprises taking the lead, with Chengdu/urban investment platforms as the main force” continues. Overall, enterprises’ land acquisition willingness remains relatively cautious. Among the top 100 companies by sales ranking, only fewer than 30% recorded land reserve income. Among the top ten companies by sales, the land acquisition amounts (all-in basis) of Yuexiu Property, Poly Development, and China Resources Land exceeded 9 billion yuan. Of these, only Yuexiu Property maintained positive year-over-year growth; for most other companies, the year-over-year declines exceeded 60%.

5

In the second quarter, we will continue to maintain a locally warm upturn in land acquisitions, with an overall cautious investment posture

Looking ahead to the second quarter, we believe the land market will show a trend of “local recovery and overall caution.” With high-quality land plots in core cities entering the market, auction heat is expected to rebound intermittently, but the overall cautious pattern among enterprises is unlikely to change fundamentally.

On one hand, the market’s bottoming-out and lingering condition constrains confidence in land acquisition. The foundation for a recovery in real estate sales is still not solid; most developers still face pressure on cash flow. For investment, the primary considerations remain fund safety and destocking assurance, so land acquisition decisions tend to be conservative. On the other hand, the heat is highly concentrated. Auction hotspots will be concentrated in core areas of first-tier cities and high-quality segments of strong second-tier cities. Third- and fourth-tier cities and remote suburban areas will remain sluggish, with clear characteristics of “spotty heat but overall coolness across the surface.”

In terms of enterprise structure, central state-owned enterprises and urban investment platforms continue to lead. Central SOEs and high-quality local state-owned enterprises will continue to deepen their presence in first- and second-tier cities leveraging their financing advantages. Urban investment platforms will shoulder the bottom-stabilizing function in third- and fourth-tier cities. A small number of financially sound private enterprises may choose to replenish inventory opportunistically, but overall land acquisition capacity is limited.

For enterprises, they still need to adhere to “safety first, precise allocation,” focusing on core city core segments, optimizing cooperation models to reduce risks. In addition, they should pay attention to opportunities in policy windows; under the premise of holding the safety bottom line, capture structural investment opportunities.

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