Recently, I came across a concept that explains quite well why Bitcoin remains relevant after 15 years: the Lindy effect. Basically, this theory states that the longer something has been around, the more likely it is to continue existing in the future. It sounds simple, but it has huge implications for understanding which cryptocurrency projects will truly endure.

The term comes from a restaurant in New York called Lindy Deli, where Broadway actors used to gather. The author Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularized it by observing that if a Broadway show has been running for a certain amount of time, the remaining duration is roughly equal to the time it has already been on stage. This isn’t linear, you know? Unlike other objects that wear out over time, things that have withstood selection pressures tend to strengthen.

When applying this concept to blockchain, it begins to make sense why so many people trust Bitcoin and Ethereum. These protocols have not only existed for over a decade but have also survived extreme volatility, attacks, conflicting regulations, and technological changes. The Lindy effect suggests that if they’ve survived all that, they are more likely to remain relevant.

Take Bitcoin specifically. Since 2009, it has gone through brutal market cycles, bans in some countries (like China), but also real adoption (El Salvador made it legal tender in 2021). Meanwhile, other governments are moving forward with more favorable regulations. The point is that Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience that few assets can claim. It even reached being the eighth-largest asset globally by market cap. In March 2024, when gold hit all-time highs of $2,130, Bitcoin also set a new record touching $69,210.

What’s interesting about the Lindy effect is that it’s not just about survival but about increasing strength. Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins, which reinforces its value proposition over time. Innovations like Lightning Network and Taproot improve its functionality. Projects like RSK and the BRC-20 standard expand its capabilities. All of this is the Lindy effect in action: a network that becomes more robust and useful as it ages.

Now, there’s another concept sometimes confused with the Lindy effect: Metcalfe’s Law. While the Lindy effect focuses on age as an indicator of resilience, Metcalfe’s Law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its users. They are complementary but different. The Lindy effect tells you how long something will probably last; Metcalfe tells you how valuable that network is right now.

For those of us operating in crypto, this has clear implications. Projects with a longer track record of security, decentralization, and active community tend to be more reliable than unproven new proposals. It’s not about dismissing innovation but recognizing that history is a powerful indicator of resilience. Established cryptocurrencies with years of stability and adoption have demonstrated the ability to survive regulatory hurdles and market downturns.

It also points to something deeper: the importance of long-term perspectives. The Lindy effect suggests that chasing quick gains based on speculative trends is less smart than investing in projects with solid fundamentals and proven track records. If something has lasted, it’s because it has some real value.

In summary, understanding the Lindy effect helps you better evaluate which technologies, innovations, and yes, which cryptocurrencies, are likely to remain relevant in the digital economy. Bitcoin is the clearest example of how this principle manifests in the crypto world: the longer it’s been around, the more reasons there are to believe it will continue to be important.