Recently, I noticed an important political development in Kazakhstan. Tokayev signed a decree in the middle of this month, deciding to hold a nationwide constitutional referendum in the middle of next month. This constitutional amendment involves major reforms to the parliamentary system. Its main content is the abolition of the current bicameral legislature and the replacement with a single-chamber parliamentary system.

Interestingly, Tokayev had already proposed this idea last year. After that, the judicial authorities and representatives from pro-presidential parties began drafting a new constitution behind closed doors. According to the draft, the new constitution will establish new institutions such as the position of Vice President and a Supreme Advisory Council. On the surface, this appears to be an institutional innovation, but the Human Rights Watch organization has raised questions, arguing that these changes are actually strengthening the president’s control over personnel appointments and legislative power.

Some political analysts point out that Tokayev’s series of actions may be laying the groundwork for the power transition in 2029. By modifying the constitutional structure, it can be ensured that the successor will have a more stable and more favorable political environment. Such early planning for a power transition is not uncommon in Central Asia.

More ironically, some Kazakh media figures wanted to conduct a public opinion poll survey related to this referendum, but ended up being fined. This to some extent reflects how sensitive the constitutional amendment is. Overall, the constitutional reforms promoted by Tokayev have indeed sparked considerable controversy, and different parties’ interpretations of his true intentions differ greatly.