The three major stock index futures all decline, as the US February CPI data is coming tonight.

1. Ahead of the U.S. stock market open on Tuesday, March 11, futures for all three major U.S. stock indexes fell. As of the time of writing, Dow Jones futures were down 0.13%, S&P 500 index futures were down 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.08%.

2. As of the time of writing, Germany’s DAX index was down 1.33%, the UK’s FTSE 100 index was down 0.89%, France’s CAC 40 index was down 0.89%, and Europe’s STOXX 50 index was down 1.14%.

3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose 4.37% to $87.10 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose 4.00% to $91.31 per barrel.

Market news

The suspense is left for March? The U.S. February CPI is expected to rise moderately, but the market is betting that inflation will rebound sharply later. As investors wait for the U.S. February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, inflation is once again becoming the focus of Wall Street. The market broadly expects that, driven by expectations of an escalation in the Middle East conflict, U.S. February consumer prices are likely to rebound—especially with gasoline prices rising. Meanwhile, as the conflict continues to push oil prices higher, March inflation is expected to move further upward. The expected increase in last month’s CPI also partly reflects the ongoing, gradual transmission of the Trump administration’s prior large-scale tariff policies to terminal prices. Trump implemented tariffs based on a law applicable during a national emergency, but the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that law invalid. However, the market expects that the inflation report to be released on Wednesday will show that core price pressures will only rise moderately in February, thanks to relatively lower prices for used cars and airfare.

Iran says it will no longer limit itself to a “tit-for-tat” response and will carry out a “chain reaction” strike, while officials assess that the U.S. has not yet instructed an end to the war. A senior Israeli official said that during closed-door discussions, Israeli officials have acknowledged that a war launched against Iran cannot be confirmed to topple its theocratic government, and that there are no signs of an uprising among the Iranian public amid ongoing bombardment. Two Israeli officials said that although Trump previously said the war could end soon, Israel’s assessment is that the U.S. is still some distance away from instructing an end to the conflict. However, Netanyahu again said that while Israel hopes to help the Iranian people “escape the shackles of tyranny,” ultimately “it depends on them.” The spokesperson emphasized that Iran’s prior “tit-for-tat” retaliation has ended, and starting now Iran will implement a “chain reaction” strike strategy and will no longer maintain a one-for-one retaliation tempo.

Japan and Germany will release strategic petroleum reserves. Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaiichi said Japan will release strategic petroleum reserves on its own to address impacts stemming from the war in the Middle East. Takaiichi said in a speech broadcast on NHK on Wednesday that the release action may begin as early as March 16, with the release consisting of 15 days’ worth of private-sector petroleum reserves and one month’s worth of national petroleum reserves. This comes as the International Energy Agency proposed releasing emergency oil reserves, and the release size could be the largest in the agency’s history, with related decisions possibly made later on Wednesday. In addition, Germany’s economy minister also said Germany will release 2.4 million tons of its national oil reserves, with specific details still to be finalized.

Damon’s “cockroach theory” is coming true? JPMorgan (JPM.US) tightens loans to private credit funds, and PIMCO warns the industry that “the liquidation is here.” Against a backdrop of rising pressure in the private credit market, JPMorgan has started limiting loans to certain private credit funds, because the bank has marked down the value of some loans in its investment portfolio. In addition, reports say JPMorgan is working on revaluing the private credit investment portfolios it holds on its balance sheet and is proactively reducing the carrying values of related assets. At the same time, senior management at Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) has sharply criticized the industry for lax underwriting standards over the years, and now it is facing a “liquidation.” According to people familiar with the matter, JPMorgan’s move involves loans to software companies—an industry that has recently drawn attention due to investors’ concerns about the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI).

The “AI disruption” narrative in the software industry cools off? After short positions hit a 17-year high, hedge funds begin “retaliatory buying.” After months of heavy selling pressure driven by worries about AI disruption, software stocks appear to have already bottomed out—at least for now. The S&P 500 software index just notched its best week since May. The widely watched iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV.US) just recorded its strongest single-week gain in 11 months. Since February 23, the index has gained 14%, after Citrini Research previously sparked market turmoil with a dystopian vision of AI’s future. Although this week’s pullback has narrowed the gains, these stocks still look cheap today due to the selloff that began in the second half of last year. Goldman’s basket of software stocks trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22x, while the S&P 500 index trades at 21x.

Company news

AI orders drive Oracle (ORCL.US) Q3 results to beat expectations, with cloud infrastructure revenue up 84% year over year. Oracle’s cloud business growth in fiscal 2026 Q3 was clearly above market expectations, and it provided strong guidance for revenue prospects over the coming year, indicating that the company is gradually fulfilling large orders from major AI customers. Cloud infrastructure business revenue, which has attracted a lot of attention, surged 84% year over year to $4.9 billion, exceeding analysts’ prior expectation of 79% and also clearly faster than the 68% growth level in the previous quarter. Remaining performance obligations (RPO), which measures the scale of future orders, reached $553 billion, higher than $523 billion in the prior quarter. Looking ahead, Oracle expects total revenue in fiscal 2027 to reach $90 billion, well above the market’s average expectation of $86.7 billion. In its statement, the company said that the growth rate of cloud computing demand required for AI training and inference is still exceeding market supply.

Tesla (TSLA.US) February sales of domestically produced electric vehicles grew 91% year over year. In February, deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles produced by Tesla’s Shanghai Super Factory (including exports to markets such as Europe) totaled 58,600 units, up 91% from the same period last year, after January’s increase of 9.3%. However, sales fell 15.2% compared with January. Tesla’s electric vehicle deliveries in China in February 2025 were affected by the partial shutdown of some Model Y assembly lines at the Shanghai plant during the Spring Festival holiday period.

JOYY (JOYY.US) Q4 revenue grows 6% and beats expectations; BIGO Ads revenue jumps 61.5%. In the fourth quarter, JOYY Group revenue was $581.9 million, above the market’s average expectation, up 5.9% from $549.4 million in the same period of 2024, and up 7.7% from $540.2 million in Q3 2025. Operating income was $18.3 million, while operating loss was $427.9 million in the same period of 2024, and operating income was $19.6 million in Q3 2025. Non-GAAP EBITDA was $50.6 million, compared with $55.7 million in the same period of 2024 and $50.6 million in Q3 2025. Net profit from continuing operations attributable to JOYY’s controlling shareholders was $54.3 million, compared with a net loss of $304.1 million in the same period of 2024, and a net profit of $62.0 million in Q3 2025.

Is $37 billion in funding still not enough? Amazon (AMZN.US) issues eight tranches of 10 billion euros in debt; the world prepares to build compute infrastructure. Amazon has officially kicked off a cross-currency bond issuance plan, aiming to raise a total of roughly $37 billion to $42 billion using the U.S. dollar and euro markets. In this fundraising effort, what has drawn the most attention is its record-breaking euro-denominated bond placement for the first time. The company plans to issue bonds of up to 10 billion euros (about $11.6 billion) in the European market and, unusually, split them into eight different maturity tranches for sale, with a very wide maturity spread—from a 2-year term all the way to a 38-year term. Notably, Amazon completed the sale of 11 portions of its U.S. dollar bonds on Tuesday, successfully raising $37 billion.

A semiconductor equipment super cycle is coming! Applied Materials (AMAT.US) teams up with two major memory-chip giants, sparking an upgrade-and-expansion wave. In an announcement made in the U.S. East time zone on Tuesday, one of the world’s largest semiconductor equipment manufacturers, Applied Materials, and memory-chip leader Micron Technology (MU.US), along with SK Hynix headquartered in South Korea, said they have reached a major partnership to develop and build the most advanced solutions and upgrade iteration roadmaps for DRAM, high bandwidth memory (HBM) storage systems, and data-center NAND storage systems, in a bid to comprehensively enhance overall memory-chip production capacity and the combined performance of AI training/inference systems.

Important economic data and event previews

At 20:30 Beijing time: U.S. February CPI year over year (not seasonally adjusted).

At 22:30 Beijing time: U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending March 6.

At 23:00 Beijing time: U.S. March IPSOS leading consumer sentiment index PCSI.

Next day at 01:00 Beijing time: U.S. March 11 10-year Treasury auction—total amount.

At 21:30 Beijing time: Fed Governor Bowman delivers remarks on regulatory issues.

TBD: OPEC to release its monthly oil market report (the exact release time is TBD; generally around 18:00–21:00 Beijing time).

TBD: The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposes releasing the largest-scale strategic oil reserves in history. Countries are expected to make a decision on this proposal on Wednesday.

Earnings previews

Thursday before market open: Li Auto (LI.US), Full Truck Alliance (YMM.US), EHang (EH.US), Futu (FUTU.US), U.S. Dallet (DG.US)