JPMorgan predicts 60% downside in Tesla stock after Q1 delivery miss

A bearish note from JPMorgan $JPM +0.84% analyst Ryan Brinkman left his $145 price target on Tesla $TSLA -3.37% unchanged — a figure that implies losses of roughly 60% from where the stock trades now — arriving after the automaker’s first-quarter deliveries came in beneath analyst expectations.

The 2026 EPS revision brought Brinkman’s estimate down to $1.80, compared with his prior figure of $2.00 — a level that now sits beneath the broader analyst consensus.

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In a note to clients, Brinkman urged caution, writing: “We advise investors approach TSLA shares with a high degree of caution. Although both technology and execution risk seem substantially less than was once feared, expansion into higher volume segments with lower price points seems fraught with greater risk relative to demand, execution, and competition.”

Against a StreetAccount consensus forecast of around 370,000 units, Tesla’s first-quarter delivery tally of 358,023 vehicles fell short. The company separately reported producing 408,386 vehicles during the period, per its investor relations release.

JPMorgan’s price target stands well below the Wall Street consensus. Yahoo Finance data puts the Street-wide consensus target at $360 a share. Bearish calls remain a small minority: among the 54 analysts who cover Tesla, only 10 hold a negative rating on the shares.

The note did not ignore Tesla’s strengths. Brinkman cited a “highly differentiated business model, appealing product portfolio, and leading-edge technology” as genuine investment positives, but concluded they are “more than offset by above-average execution risk, rising competition, growing controversy with regard to the brand, and valuation that seems to be pricing in a lot.”

Among the cohort of megacap technology stocks dubbed the Magnificent Seven, Tesla has posted the steepest losses, with its shares off around 20% since January.

The first-quarter delivery shortfall adds to a difficult stretch for Tesla. The company’s production-to-delivery gap of more than 50,000 vehicles signals a buildup of unsold inventory. Fourth-quarter 2025 results showed net income falling 61% from a year earlier, automotive revenue sliding 11%, and full-year deliveries declining — marking Tesla’s first annual revenue decline. Energy storage was a rare bright spot that quarter, with revenue rising 25% to $3.84 billion.

Headwinds buffeting the automaker include the lapse of a $7,500 EV purchase incentive that the Trump administration allowed to expire, deepening rivalry with Chinese electric vehicle makers, and growing public scrutiny tied to Musk’s political activities. Musk has directed investor attention toward robotaxis, humanoid robots, and artificial intelligence as growth drivers.

Investors will get a fuller picture of Tesla’s Q1 2026 performance on the evening of April 22, when the company releases its quarterly earnings.

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