Inclined to join the US-led action? The Gulf countries' joint statement condemns Iran, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE taking action.

As the conflict continues, the attitudes of Arab countries in the Gulf region have attracted significant attention. On the 25th local time, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan issued a joint statement condemning the attacks launched by Iran as violations of their sovereignty and territorial integrity, affirming their “inherent right to self-defense” against these attacks.

Previously, Saudi Arabia agreed to allow U.S. troops to use its King Fahd Air Base and is about to decide whether to join the offensive operations. The UAE is taking strong measures against assets owned by Iran, shutting down institutions associated with the Iranian regime. However, some analysts suggest that Gulf Arab countries may only ultimately join the U.S. and Israel’s camp if Iran attacks their critical electricity or water infrastructure.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated during a press conference on the situation in the Middle East on the 25th that the spillover effects of the Iranian conflict continue to spread, severely impacting peace and stability in the Middle East and the world. An immediate ceasefire is the common expectation of the peoples of the region and the international community.

“Toleration is not infinite”

According to informed sources, Saudi Arabia has recently agreed to let U.S. troops use the King Fahd Air Base located in the western Arabian Peninsula. Saudi officials had previously stated multiple times that they would not allow their facilities or airspace to be used to attack Iran. However, after Iran launched missiles and drones at crucial energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and the capital Riyadh, Saudi Arabia has changed its position.

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan warned last week following a series of attacks by Iran on Gulf region energy infrastructure: “Saudi Arabia’s tolerance for Iranian attacks is not infinite, and any notion that Gulf countries are incapable of responding is a misjudgment.”

Furthermore, reports indicate that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is now eager to rebuild Saudi deterrence and is about to decide to join the offensive operation, stating that “it’s just a matter of time before we engage in combat.” However, Bloomberg reports that Gulf countries will only join the war if Iran attacks their critical electricity and water infrastructure. Considering Iran may further escalate its attacks against Gulf countries, they remain cautious about intervening in the war.

Currently, there is increasing evidence that Gulf countries are facilitating U.S. military actions against Iran. Verified videos from the social media news agency Storyful show that some ground-based missiles used to attack Iran originated from Bahrain. U.S. officials admitted on the 14th that five U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft were damaged after being attacked by Iranian missiles at the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, indicating that the U.S. is using this base to conduct military operations against Iran. The U.S. military has refused to disclose whether Arab countries are assisting U.S. forces in combat.

Iran has warned that if Gulf countries assist U.S. military operations, it will trigger a stronger backlash from Iran throughout the region. An anonymous Iranian official stated that if the UAE allows U.S. troops to use its airbase to carry out military operations similar to the seizure of Hark Island, Iran will launch “fierce attacks” against the UAE.

UAE authorities have already begun to crack down on assets held by the Iranian government within its territory, recently closing an Iranian hospital and Iranian club in Dubai. The UAE has also threatened to freeze tens of billions of dollars in Iranian assets. Before the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, the UAE had close economic and financial ties with Iran and had long been a major platform for Iranian enterprises and individuals to obtain trade and financial services. Analysts suggest that the UAE’s freezing of Iranian assets could severely limit Tehran’s access to foreign exchange and its participation in the global trade network.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministry announced on the 21st that the military attaché, the military attaché’s assistant, and three other members of the Iranian embassy in Saudi Arabia were declared “unwelcome persons” and were required to leave within 24 hours.

“A historic opportunity”

Before the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, Gulf countries had vigorously opposed participating in attacks, fearing that Iran might retaliate against them. Analysts point out that as the war continues to spread, Gulf countries are beginning to worry that a hasty end to the war by the U.S. could leave them in a worse situation than before the conflict.

Anonymous officials stated that Saudi Arabia hopes to weaken Tehran’s cruise missile and ballistic missile capabilities “as much as possible” before the war ends, while the UAE believes that it is “difficult” to coexist with Iran’s missile and drone programs in the region. U.S. officials noted that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been urging Trump to continue the war against Iran, viewing it as a “historic opportunity” to reshape the Middle East.

Iranian officials have recently stated that they demand the establishment of a new status quo in the region, including formally establishing control over the Strait of Hormuz, demanding compensation for war losses, and altering the decades-long alliance between Gulf Arab countries and the U.S. Iran has also threatened that if its energy infrastructure is further attacked, it will expand its attacks on Arab neighbors.

Informed officials revealed that Turkey is intensifying diplomatic efforts to urge Gulf countries to exercise restraint and prevent their involvement in the war. Turkish President Erdogan stated on the 24th: “We do not want this war to evolve into a war of attrition between countries in the region.”

Fears of being abandoned by Trump?

Since the outbreak of the war, Gulf countries have been forced to spend billions of dollars defending against Iranian missile and drone attacks, suffering increasingly severe damage to their economies and sovereignty. Alex Vatanka, a senior researcher at the Middle East Institute, stated that Gulf countries “are being placed in huge risk without consent, and the damage caused in just four weeks may take years to recover.”

Vatanka noted that the Trump administration is likely to abandon Gulf countries again. “Trump does not care about them (the Gulf countries) deeply, except as sources of personal business opportunities.” He pointed out that “beyond ensuring the free flow of trade through the Strait of Hormuz and ending Iran’s nuclear program, there is no reason to expect Trump to prioritize the needs of Gulf countries in any negotiations with Iran, even if there are long-standing security agreements between them.”

The Wall Street Journal analyzed that the Gulf countries’ threats to intervene in the conflict reflect their current difficult situation. On one hand, Gulf countries are outraged by Iran’s attacks; on the other hand, they are equally dissatisfied with the irresponsible actions of the Trump administration: these countries have provided Trump with huge funding but find themselves unable to influence his administration’s decisions or obtain reliable security assurances.

Gregory Gause, an analyst on U.S.-Gulf relations at the Middle East Institute, pointed out: “They are simply caught in the structural dilemma that always occurs when a weaker side allies with a stronger side; if the stronger side takes a belligerent stance, they fear they will be dragged into a war they do not want to fight.”

Nargis Bajoghlian, an associate professor of Middle Eastern studies at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, wrote in Foreign Affairs that Iran has been trying to demonstrate that the security net the U.S. has established in the Gulf since 1979 is unreliable. From the lack of U.S. support for the attacked Saudi oil facilities in 2019 to the current war, the confidence of Gulf countries in Washington has clearly eroded, leading them to question the value of continuing to be deeply tied to the U.S., which is precisely the outcome Iran hopes to see.

Source: The Paper

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