International oil prices again breaking through the $100 mark, gold prices continue to weaken! Commodities are experiencing sharp divergence, and gold stocks are collectively surging in performance.

International crude oil prices continue to rise, while international gold prices have once again fallen.

International Oil Prices Surge

On March 26, international crude oil has continued to rise. As of the time of reporting, WTI crude oil futures rose over 3%, priced at $93.63 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures increased by 3.28%, priced at $100.45 per barrel.

According to a report by CCTV News, the Israel Defense Forces announced on March 26 that they launched a series of large-scale attacks on infrastructure in Isfahan, Iran. Catalyzed by this news, international oil prices have returned to an upward trend.

Several institutions predict that international oil prices will continue to rise. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the flow through the Strait of Hormuz may gradually recover starting mid-April, and if upstream damage intensifies, oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel for the next two years.

Barclays also believes that if the situation drags on until the end of April, the forward price of Brent crude oil for 2026 may be revalued to $100 per barrel.

Additionally, it is noteworthy that market concerns about soaring oil and natural gas prices driving up short-term inflation have sharply intensified. Currently, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year has surpassed expectations for rate cuts; the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also predicted to raise rates multiple times.

International Gold Prices Decline Again

During trading on March 26, international gold prices weakened once more. COMEX gold briefly dropped over 3%, with prices dipping to $4,400 per ounce. Spot gold also fell significantly, with London gold dropping nearly 2% during trading, reaching a low price of around $4,410 per ounce.

Looking at the longer timeline, COMEX gold has recently breached several important thresholds, with a minimum drop to $4,100 per ounce. This week, catalyzed by news, it rebounded significantly for two consecutive days. The conflict between market risk aversion and the macro pricing mechanism has led to a “rollercoaster” market for gold prices.

Bosera Fund pointed out that as the situation in the Middle East escalates, transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is hindered, and risks spill over from surrounding areas, some funds have begun to prioritize liquidity and asset safety, causing gold holders to sell physical gold at a discount in local markets. Although this type of passive selling does not necessarily indicate a long-term bearish outlook, it is sufficient to amplify price fluctuations in the short term.

Looking ahead, Founder Securities believes that against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks and increased demand for safe-haven assets, there is still a possibility for gold prices to approach $5,500 per ounce in the short term. In the medium term, gold is likely to exhibit a strong oscillating pattern at high levels, with the operating range possibly concentrated between $4,750 and $5,500 per ounce; in the long term, it is supported by factors such as a weaker dollar, declining real interest rates, inflows into ETFs, and increased allocation demand, still possessing considerable strategic allocation value, with an optimistic scenario potentially seeing the price center further shift upwards.

Bank of America noted that before speculative positions are cleared and the macro environment stabilizes, international gold prices may maintain a pattern of oscillation and consolidation. The medium to long-term demand for central bank gold purchases still has a basis for recovery, but its revival depends on the easing of geopolitical conflicts and the normalization of the energy market. Until then, the gold market will still be dominated by a liquidity-first logic.

Gold Stocks Collectively Profit

According to statistics from Securities Times · Data Treasure, since the beginning of the year (from February 24 to March 25), financing funds have increased their positions in four gold stocks: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Xiaocheng Technology, Hunan Gold, and Shandong Gold, with net purchases of 172 million yuan, 58.3845 million yuan, 50.5708 million yuan, and 31.6969 million yuan, respectively.

Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining currently operates six gold mines and one polymetallic mine, including the Laos Vientiane Mining and Ghana’s Wassa Gold Mine located abroad. By the end of 2025, Chifeng Jilong Gold is expected to have gold resources (GORO) of 583 tons, with an average grade of 1.54 grams per ton.

On March 23, before the market opened, Chifeng Jilong Gold and Zijin Mining both announced that Zijin Mining plans to acquire control of Chifeng Jilong Gold through purchases and a private placement, with a total investment of 18.258 billion yuan.

As of March 26, ten gold stocks have released performance reports related to 2025. Based on annual report data or forecast medians, all ten companies achieved profitability. Zijin Mining’s net profit far outpaced others at 51.777 billion yuan; followed by Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold, with net profits of 5.1 billion yuan, 4.75 billion yuan, and 3.082 billion yuan, respectively.

Zijin Mining achieved revenue of 349.1 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 51.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.55%, breaking 50 billion yuan for the first time in history. The growth in net profit was mainly due to an increase in both product volume and prices.

By the end of 2025, Zijin Mining is expected to have gold resources (GORO) of 4,610.48 tons and gold reserves of 1,996.25 tons, with gold mine production capacity reaching 90 tons in 2025, and expected to reach 105 tons in 2026.

In terms of changes in net profit, gold stocks generally saw substantial increases in performance for 2025. Xiaocheng Technology achieved a doubling of net profit for the year, with a year-on-year increase of 136.28%; Sichuan Gold, Western Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Hunan Gold followed, with year-on-year increases in net profit all exceeding 70%.

‍Statement: All information content from Data Treasure does not constitute investment advice; the stock market is risky, and investments should be made cautiously.

Proofread by: Pandar