Dow Jones Dives, Oil Prices Near $100 As Iran War Drags On; Tesla Looms

Dow Jones futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. President Donald Trump’s comments and other Iran war news over the weekend once again are in focus. Tesla (TSLA) deliveries are ahead.

The stock market saw the major indexes fall for a fifth straight week, tumbling to six-month lows. Oil prices dived initially but then surged to around $100 a barrel, while Treasury yields soared.

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Sandisk (SNDK), Micron Technology (MU) and other memory plays sold off on long-term demand fears, though they bounced somewhat on Friday. Overall chip stocks suffered big weekly losses.

Dow giant Caterpillar (CAT) as well as discounter TJX Cos. (TJX) and coal miner Peabody Energy (BTU) are showing strength.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Join IBD experts as they analyze leading stocks and the market on IBD Live

Stock Market

The stock market started the weak strong while oil prices plunged as President Trump hailed “productive” peace talks to end the Iran war. But Tehran dismissed his peace plan while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Even with Trump again extending a deadline for negotiations until April 6, shares sold off to end the week, while oil prices hit new highs.

The major indexes tumbled to six-month lows, ending their short-lived rally attempts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9% in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index slumped 2.1%. The Nasdaq composite plunged 3.2%. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 0.5%, but came well off midweek highs, not far from the 200-day line.

Chip stocks were notable losers after midweek while several megacaps are breaking down.

Still, losses were broad-based, especially outside energy. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) fell 1.1%, skidding below the 200-day moving average and recent lows.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose five basis points to 4.44%, though off Friday’s intraday high of 4.48%. The yield has soared 48 basis points over the last four weeks.

U.S. crude oil futures rose 1.4% to $99.64 a barrel last week but that’s after tumbling to nearly $88 on Monday.

Markets may be starting to discounting Trump’s upbeat comments as the Iran war goes and as physical shortages in energy and beyond become more acute.

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ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) sank 1.2% last week. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) dived 7.35%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) sank 2.7%, with Micron stock a big SMH holding.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) plunged 6.5% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) sank 4%. Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest’s ETFs.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) bounced 4.1% last week. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) jumped 5.5% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) lost 1.4%.

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) declined 1.5%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) gave up 2.6%.

Best Growth Stocks To Buy And Watch

Stocks To Watch

Caterpillar rose 2.1% to 695.40 last week, but faded to close just below its 50-day line. A move above the March 23 high of 729.35 would be actionable. CAT stock is in a consolidation working toward a buy point of 789.91. The Dow Jones giant was Wednesday’s IBD Stock Of The Day.

TJX stock edged up 0.1% last week to 155.12, but faded to close back below the 50-day line after hitting resistance at a still-valid 159.48 buy point from a flat base initially cleared in late February. The off-price retail giant could have a new flat base with a 162.68 buy point in another week. Investors could use 160 as entry. The relative The relative strength line for TJX stock is at a high.

Peabody Energy stock gained 5.9% for the week to 39.50, hitting a multiyear closing high on Friday. BTU stock is just below a 39.95 consolidation buy point. Demand for coal is booming, especially in Asian countries that are running low on natural gas. Coal demand may remain elevated for a lengthy period, but an Iran war deal would likely hit coal stocks.

Sandisk, Micron

Google unveiled a compression algorithm that could mean far less memory is needed for some artificial intelligence tasks. Memory plays have skyrocketed, along with earnings expectations, on the prospects for huge, long-term demand vs. the typical boom-bust cycles. If that thesis is undermined, the stocks’ run could come to a halt.

Micron stock dived 15.5% last week to 357.22, undercutting the low of a base after a failed breakout in the prior week. Sandisk stock plunged 13.2% to 615.83, well below a 691.54 double-bottom buy point down to the 50-day and 10-week lines.

Hard-drive makers Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) also fell solidly.

On Friday, SNDK rose 2.1% while the memory plays edged higher, but only recouping a sliver of weekly losses. Sandisk and Western Digital did bounce off their 50-day lines.

Tesla Deliveries

Tesla will release first-quarter global deliveries, as well as energy storage deployed, presumably before the open on April 2. On Thursday, Tesla released its own compilation of analyst estimates that was below some other consensus forecasts.

The Tesla-compiled target is for electric vehicle deliveries of 365,645 units, down 12.5% vs. 418,227 in fourth-quarter 2025, but up 8.6% vs. the 336,681 in Q1 2025. However, the Tesla estimate is significantly below than the 382,000-unit consensus from analysts polled by FactSet.

Tesla stock fell 1.7% to 361.83 last week, back to a six-month low, round-tripping a late 2025 rally.

China EV makers BYD (BYDDF), Xiaomi (XIACY), Nio (NIO), Li Auto (LI) and XPeng (XPEV) will release first-quarter deliveries on April 1. Sales should rebound in the second quarter, as China EV makers will ramp up deliveries of new and updated EVs.

Notably, Tesla isn’t introducing any new or updated EVs in China.

Rivian (RIVN) also will likely release Q1 deliveries this coming week, but the buzz for the EV startup is the upcoming R2 vehicle.

What To Do Now

The stock market continues to break lower — and break hearts.

With the market rallying to start this past week, a number of leading stocks flashed buy signals by Wednesday, but most of those wiped out gains or ended the week lower.

The lesson? Don’t be tempted by bullish signals until the stock market shows real strength, not just a good day or two. In all likelihood, that will require some Iran war resolution.

Don’t try to guess the bottom. The key is to be prepared for the next uptrend. Look for stocks that are showing relative strength, even if their charts are somewhat messy.

The stock market will be closed for Good Friday, but the Labor Department will release the March jobs report that morning.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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