Digital Mining is Still No Match for Physical Mining! Bitcoin May Struggle to Exit Bear Market Amid US-Iran Conflict

Why Is Bitcoin’s Rebound Pattern Difficult to Sustain?

Cailian Press, March 16 (Editor: Ma Lan) Bitcoin has attempted multiple rebounds this year but has failed each time. Most of the time, it hovers between $60,000 and $75,000, with a total decline of over 15% year-to-date.

Bitcoin once showed signs of breaking out amid the US-Iran conflict, but has now fallen back into weakness. However, its overall performance remains better than stocks and gold. After the US-Iran conflict erupted in late February, Bitcoin’s price rose over 11.8%, while gold fell more than 3.5%, and the S&P 500 declined 4%.

Analysts point out that recent Bitcoin rallies follow a similar pattern: as oil, metals, and commodities experience sharp fluctuations, Bitcoin shows breakout momentum but struggles to sustain it.

Jasper De Maere, an OTC trading strategist and trader at crypto market maker Wintermute, said this pattern is quite clear. Bitcoin markets see slight increases, but open interest rises, and the funding rate turns negative, indicating bearish market sentiment. Then, short covering causes prices to continue climbing.

He added that compared to the scenario where Bitcoin fluctuates between $85,000 and $95,000 by the end of 2025, current trading volumes are much smaller. This makes Bitcoin more susceptible to sudden price swings.

HALO Is the Real Asset

Andreja Cobeljic, Head of Derivatives Trading at AMINA Bank, said that the current market resembles past crypto bear markets: a sharp sell-off, followed by a 20% rebound, then stagnation. At present, Bitcoin lacks enough momentum to break through.

Jeff Currie, Chief Strategist at Carlyle Energy Path, emphasized that market interest is elsewhere. He advocates holding HALO assets—heavy, low-depreciation assets like metals, precious metals, and oil.

This argument is straightforward, as geopolitical conflicts are putting immense pressure on global supply chains. Oil, natural gas, fertilizers, petrochemicals, and metals are all affected.

Since the US-Iran conflict, oil prices have surged nearly 70%, soaring from about $70 per barrel to $120, now fluctuating around $100. Meanwhile, aluminum prices hit a new high for 2022 on Monday.

Additionally, Cobeljic noted that Bitcoin faces risks beyond the Middle East. Tightening private credit, high inflation, and limited room for central bank easing could trigger another shock. She predicts a brief rebound in Bitcoin followed by another cyclical decline, with funds shifting into commodities and other inflation hedges.

This also reflects a harsh reality for digital asset investors: in a world dominated by metal and oil supplies, relying solely on artificially set scarcity is unlikely to truly serve as a safe haven.

(Cailian Press, Ma Lan)