Prediction markets are increasingly favored by cryptocurrency traders as a tool for assessing real-time probabilities of major macroeconomic events, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket achieving significant growth. In 2025 alone, trading volumes on these markets approached $60 billion. Traders leverage implied probabilities—which typically align with traditional instruments like federal funds futures—to analyze potential impacts on assets like Bitcoin. Analysis shows that Bitcoin prices fluctuate an average of 0.6% within 30 minutes following the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data. While these markets offer valuable reference information, price action remains the ultimate signal, aggregating all market information and reflecting supply and demand dynamics in their purest form.