Yangtze River Nonferrous: Downstream Acceptance of High Prices Limited, Lithium Carbonate Price May Decline Slightly on the 16th

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Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network

Today (March 16), in the morning session, the main contract LC2605 for lithium carbonate at the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened lower and fluctuated. The opening price was 152,460 yuan/ton, down from the previous trading day’s settlement price of 156,880 yuan/ton. As of 9:07 AM, the highest touched 154,360 yuan/ton, and the lowest dropped to 151,000 yuan/ton. The latest price hovered around 152,000 yuan/ton, down approximately 2.38%, with half-day trading volume of 25,589 lots.

Market Influence Factors Analysis:

The supply and demand remain strong, with both fundamental support and pressure. On the supply side, lithium salt producers maintained stable production after the holiday, but upstream price support remains, and spot sellers are less willing to sell. Demand shows structural characteristics: orders for power batteries are relatively stable, while energy storage demand remains hot, becoming a key driver of demand growth. In terms of inventory, overall stocks are still in a de-stocking phase. Industry statistics show that current spot inventory has decreased compared to previous periods, and low inventory levels provide some price support.

Overseas policy disruptions remain a key variable. News about major resource countries suspending lithium concentrate exports continues to impact market sentiment. As an important source of lithium resources for China, if export policies in these countries are implemented long-term, it could intensify expectations of long-term supply tightness. However, increased exports from other major exporting countries have somewhat alleviated supply concerns.

Macroeconomic sentiment and capital flows have a significant impact. Recently, lithium carbonate futures prices have experienced considerable volatility, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, risk aversion, and capital movements. Last week, market trading activity declined, with both trading volume and open interest decreasing compared to previous periods.

Institutional Views:

Some market opinions suggest that lithium carbonate is entering a critical period for allocation. Some institutions point out that, due to the locked-in lithium resource expansion cycle and low industry capital expenditure, combined with the rapid growth of energy storage demand after profit models are gradually improved, lithium carbonate has a basis for phased tight supply and demand. Its allocation window may arrive earlier. However, in the short term, most analysts believe prices will remain volatile. Industry analysis indicates that this month, the fundamentals for lithium carbonate show both supply and demand strength, but recent macro news and mining-side disturbances still carry uncertainties, and prices are expected to remain in a range.

Market Outlook:

Overall, the lithium carbonate market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors. On the downside, low inventories and strong energy storage demand provide support, while on the upside, supply recovery, limited downstream acceptance of high prices, and macroeconomic sentiment fluctuations pose challenges. It is expected that the main contracts will fluctuate within a broad range in the short term. Close attention should be paid to downstream production plans, overseas resource policies, and macro market sentiment changes. Trading strategies should adopt a range-bound approach, with risk control on positions.

【Personal opinion for reference only, not investment advice】

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Editor: Li Tiemin