I reviewed the BTC price movements around the past 8 FOMC meetings and found that 7 of them resulted in declines. With another one coming tomorrow, following this pattern, BTC might take another hit.

7 times. Including the 3 rate cuts. Rate cuts should theoretically be bullish for risk assets, but BTC has continued to fall regardless.

The January instance was even more absurd. Everyone knew rates would stay unchanged, CME FedWatch gave it a 92% probability, and the outcome matched expectations perfectly. Yet within 48 hours, BTC dropped from 90,400 to 83,383—a 7.3% decline. A 100% anticipated result, and it still fell.

Today BTC just broke through 75,000, outperforming gold, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq during the war period. ETF net inflows of $1.3 billion in March, and perpetual futures funding rates have been negative for 14 consecutive days. The last time it lasted this long was probably late 2022 when BTC was around 16,000?

Sentiment is extremely pessimistic while prices are quietly climbing. Sounds like a prelude to a reversal, right?

Then you glance at the calendar—tomorrow the 18th at 2 PM, the FOMC announces its decision. This time it's definitely "no rate cut," 92% probability maintaining 3.5%-3.75% unchanged, identical to the January scenario.

But what's different this time is that it's a meeting with a dot plot. The last median indicated one cut in 2026; this time if it becomes two cuts, that's bullish; if it becomes zero cuts, that's a direct market crash.

Plus, oil is now above $100 per barrel, the Iran war is still ongoing, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocking 20% of global oil supply. The Federal Reserve has no choice but to factor this into its new economic projections. Inflation expectations will likely be revised higher, GDP expectations will likely be revised lower.

Two words: stagflation. The Federal Reserve's biggest headache.

But honestly, looking at the data, I myself find it quite contradictory.

On one hand, the "market drops after the meeting" pattern has repeated 7 times, like clockwork. People who bought earlier sell after the meeting ends, regardless of the outcome. If you don't know this rhythm, you'll probably passively endure that 48-hour pullback.

On the other hand, BTC's current position is different from before. In those previous 7 declines, BTC was dropping from highs. This time it's just climbed up from a five-month bottom, short positions are at their tightest since 2022, and ETF capital continues to flow in.

In other words, if there's another decline this time, it might be shallower; if there's no decline, it could actually signal something.

I don't know what will happen tomorrow. But there's one data point I think is worth remembering: after the past 7 FOMC declines, BTC basically stabilized within 48-72 hours, then returned to pre-meeting levels within one to two weeks.

Not saying this will definitely repeat. Just saying if you're preparing to do something, maybe you don't need to rush at 2 PM tomorrow.

Wait a bit longer, let the bullet fly for a while. The Federal Reserve always scares people first, then pretends nothing happened.