"Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam are urgently asking the US: What do we do without oil, give us a straight answer"

[Text in English]

Author: Observer Network Wang Yi

The spillover effects caused by the US and Israel dragging the Middle East into war are rapidly impacting the Asian energy markets. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly comes to a halt, Asian countries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy are beginning to feel anxious—if energy supplies continue to be interrupted, the economies of many nations could face shocks within weeks.

What further unsettles these US allies in Asia is that, according to a March 11 report by Politico, efforts to seek guidance or assistance from the Trump administration have so far received little response.

Three anonymous Asian officials and a former US official revealed that countries like Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam have been trying to understand Washington’s objectives and the duration of its actions, but the unpredictable statements from President Trump make it difficult for these countries to judge how long the conflict will last or to formulate response plans accordingly.

A diplomat stationed in Washington said, “We have received no communication from the Trump administration.” When asked what actions the US could take, he responded directly, “Ideally, ending this conflict.”

Even if the war cannot be ended in the short term, another Asian official said the US could still take measures to ease pressure on energy markets, such as coordinating with multiple countries to provide insurance for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the Trump administration has not signaled any such plans.

Scott Macher, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs under the Obama administration, stated that embassies in the US need and expect information about what actions the US is taking, whether the issue is only short-term, and how Washington plans to assist.

“Not doing so will only make the region feel more strongly that the US government is not truly committed to being a reliable partner,” Macher said.

The heightened tension among Asian countries is largely due to their high dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. According to the US Energy Information Administration, approximately 84% of crude oil and 83% of liquefied natural gas transported through this strait in 2024 ultimately flow to Asia, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea accounting for nearly 70% of crude oil shipments, and the remaining 15% going to other parts of Asia.

Since the US and Israel attacked Iran about two weeks ago, this critical energy corridor has almost come to a standstill.

On March 11, local time, a Thai cargo ship was attacked and set on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Thai Navy

On March 11, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that member countries would release 400 million barrels of crude oil from emergency reserves, the largest reserve release in the agency’s history. However, it remains unclear how much this will alleviate pressure on Asian countries, many of which lack large strategic reserves and are highly sensitive to oil price spikes and supply disruptions.

Asian officials revealed that their countries’ oil reserves can only sustain about a month of domestic consumption.

According to a summary by Qatar’s Al Jazeera on March 12, Vietnam’s oil reserves can last about 20 days; Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, currently has fuel reserves for about 21 to 23 days; Thailand’s fuel reserves can last approximately 65 days, with plans to add an additional 30 days; the Philippines’ fuel reserves are about 50 to 60 days, but these stocks are mainly held by private companies; South Korea’s oil reserves can last 208 days, and Japan’s about 254 days.

Faced with the possibility that Persian Gulf oil and natural gas supplies may remain disrupted for the next two weeks, some Asian countries have begun emergency measures to conserve resources.

India announced on the 11th that it would cut 20% of supplies of liquefied natural gas to domestic industrial sectors; the Philippines and Vietnam have reactivated work-from-home policies implemented during the pandemic to reduce gasoline demand; Thailand has encouraged officials to work from home and reduce travel; Myanmar has implemented odd-even vehicle restrictions to lower fuel consumption.

Some countries have also intervened in markets to stabilize fuel prices. Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha announced a temporary cap on diesel prices, while Vietnam said it has begun using the fuel price stabilization fund. Media reports indicate these measures aim to mitigate short-term energy market volatility.

Due to supply chain shocks, some countries have also begun restricting energy exports. Thailand has announced a ban on oil exports, with exceptions made for Cambodia and Laos.

Additionally, Asian countries are competing to find new sources of oil and gas. Vietnam has announced plans to purchase about 4 million barrels of crude oil from countries outside the Middle East, but analysts note this amount is only enough to cover about six days of Vietnam’s consumption. With reduced crude oil supplies from the Persian Gulf, regional refineries have recently been forced to cut production.

Prijanka Kishore, chief economist at Asia Decoded, a Singapore-based consulting firm, said that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, these measures are only a preview of what Southeast Asia might face in the future. She stated, “They are trying to control the situation before the supply issues truly impact their countries.”

Politico reports that, meanwhile, the assistance the US can provide is very limited. A trader at a major US investment bank said that US liquefied natural gas production is currently at full capacity, with no additional capacity to send to Asia in the short term.

“In the short term, the US can hardly provide more natural gas—there are no pipelines, and it’s impossible to transport gas by truck from here to there,” the trader said.

The White House is trying to reassure allies, claiming that they will ultimately benefit from the current situation and emphasizing that the impact is temporary. White House spokesperson Taylor Rojas said Trump is maintaining close communication with global partners, and Iran’s attacks on neighboring countries “prove how necessary it is to eliminate this threat.”

Since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, international oil prices have risen over 29%. Over the past week, Trump has been trying to calm global energy markets. Last week, the Trump administration announced a temporary permit allowing India to continue purchasing Russian oil.

On the 11th, Trump also claimed that US forces had struck numerous Iranian military targets and hinted that the war might end soon. However, he previously stated that the conflict could last four to six weeks and demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” which could imply longer-term military engagement.

This inconsistent messaging has only increased anxiety among Asian countries. An Asian official admitted that some of Trump’s statements suggest the conflict could become prolonged, with their alert levels depending on “how long the conflict lasts.”

Economists and research institutions warn that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in the coming weeks, tensions in Asian energy markets will escalate rapidly. Continued supply disruptions could push Southeast Asian economies toward recession.

Next week, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will visit the US for a summit with Trump, during which she is expected to raise concerns about energy security for Japan and other Asian countries.

Former US Ambassador to Japan Ram Emanuel said, “The president made decisions on Iran without consulting allies, and they will bear the consequences. Therefore, when Trump meets with Kishida next week, he needs to recognize the costs Japan will pay.”

This article is an exclusive report by Observer Network and may not be reproduced without permission.