Is Guangzhou and Shenzhen Real Estate Market Experiencing a "Minor Spring"? Second-hand Home Transactions Far Exceed New Homes, with Some "Bargain Deals" Closing in Less Than a Week

March has traditionally been the peak season for the real estate market, and the strength of the “Golden March and Silver April” directly influences the market trend for the entire year.

In early 2026, Guangzhou and Shenzhen successively emerged from the low transaction period after the Spring Festival holiday, with both viewing and transaction volumes rising simultaneously, and market warmth continuing to spread.

A reporter from Daily Economic News (hereinafter referred to as “the reporter”) visited some properties, spoke with real estate agents, and consulted multiple research institutions. They learned that this round of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen “small spring” has already arrived in substance. Meanwhile, the market logic has also undergone a significant change: some popular “bargain” properties (referring to high-cost-performance properties priced significantly lower than similar listings in the same area) are gradually disappearing, and the bargaining space for listed properties with owners is shrinking.

Both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are showing a comprehensive lead in the second-hand housing market, becoming the main drivers of this “small spring” rebound. The new housing market, however, is experiencing deep segmentation: since the beginning of the year, Shenzhen’s new home supply has decreased year-over-year; Guangzhou’s luxury homes in core areas are hot, while first-time buyers are still relying on discounts to drive sales. It can be said that the first- and second-hand markets are reversing roles, with structural changes on the supply side, forming the most distinctive features of this round of “small spring.”

A sales office of a property for sale in the Xin’an area, Bao’an, Shenzhen. Image source: Daily Economic News reporter Chen Ronghao

Second-hand Housing Leads the “Small Spring” Campaign

This round of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen real estate “small spring” is primarily driven by second-hand housing, with the fundamental market logic rewritten.

From data to frontline experience, second-hand housing is leading the recovery rhythm.

Shenzhen was the first to ignite the market, becoming the core engine of this revival. According to monitoring by LeYouJia, after the Spring Festival, second-hand home contract volumes surged by 132% month-over-month, reaching the highest level since late March 2024. As of February 2026, the average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen has rebounded to 62,000 yuan per square meter.

Image source: Shenzhen LeYouJia Research Center

Data from Beike Research Institute also shows a clear trend: from March 2 to 8, second-hand home contract volumes in Shenzhen increased by 118% month-over-month, with a single-day transaction volume on March 8 reaching a nearly one-year high, continuing two weeks of growth.

Additionally, market sentiment is also improving. According to the latest monitoring data released by Shenzhen Beike Research Institute, in February, the number of second-hand listings in their partner stores decreased by 3.3% year-over-year. Unreasonable sell-offs have significantly decreased, and the market is gradually entering a healthy cycle of “expectation strengthening—supply optimization—price stabilization.”

Image source: Beike Research Institute

“Currently, high-quality school district homes and properties with low total prices and high rental yields are recovering most noticeably. For example, in our area, the Liyuan headquarters school district homes, like the 83-square-meter three-bedroom at Yuanling Garden, are in higher demand after the holiday because they are linked to Liyuan headquarters and Hongling Middle School,” said Liu Anying, a senior agent in Shenzhen Futian Yuanling area, sharing with the reporter on March 14.

Liu Anying mentioned that the transaction speed of “bargain” second-hand homes has been compressed into a relatively short cycle, with some even selling within a week of listing. “Take the Hailing Court project in Futian, for example. The large three-bedroom, about 108 square meters, is generally listed above 8.2 million yuan, with a unit price of about 77,400 yuan per square meter. Some owners are eager to sell, and with a listed price of 7.55 million yuan, it can be sold in about a week,” Liu said.

A partial listing of second-hand homes in CuiZhu, Luohu, Shenzhen. Image source: Daily Economic News reporter Chen Ronghao

In fact, similar phenomena are also present in Luohu, Shenzhen. As transaction volumes increase, owners’ attitudes toward listings have stabilized, and they are less anxious to sell, which has also significantly reduced bargaining space.

For example, a two-bedroom unit of 47.84 square meters in CuiZhu Yuan, Luohu, visited by the reporter at the end of last year, was previously listed at 2.45 million yuan. An agent revealed that the lowest possible price could be around 2.3 million yuan. However, in March this year, the agent told the reporter that the lowest asking price was 2.37 million yuan.

The second-hand housing market in Guangzhou has also experienced a strong rebound.

Data from Beike shows that on March 8, Guangzhou’s second-hand home transactions reached 247 units in a single day, up 25.4% from the previous day; the total transactions from March 2 to 8 were 849 units, a 118.8% increase week-over-week. Post-holiday demand has been released in full, with continuous increases in viewings at agent stores. The Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association’s March manager index jumped by 43.5 points to 71.78, indicating strong confidence in the “small spring.”

According to Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are showing the core characteristic of “second-hand housing outperforming new homes.” The number of new listings for second-hand homes has decreased year-over-year, market sentiment continues to improve, and this also stimulates the replacement demand of “selling old and buying new,” gradually smoothing the market cycle.

Xiao Xiaoping, director of Beike Research Institute in Shenzhen, also expressed similar views. He believes this rebound is not a short-term policy pulse but a resonance of policy optimization, confidence repair, and concentrated release of demand for self-occupation. The continuous increase in second-hand housing volume and the simultaneous rise in new housing make the foundation of this “small spring” more solid.

Structural Trends in the New Housing Market

Unlike the overall enthusiasm in second-hand housing, the new housing market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has not experienced a broad price increase but rather a typical “structural market.”

For example, in Guangzhou, the luxury market has repeatedly set new transaction records, boosting nearby new housing viewing interest. In February, the Tianhe Ma Chang site sold for 23.604 billion yuan at a premium rate of 26.6%, with a residential land price of about 85,500 yuan per square meter, setting a new record for Guangzhou land prices.

On March 2, a 670-square-meter top-floor duplex at Poly Yuexi Bay in Zhujiang New Town sold for 187 million yuan, with a unit price of about 280,000 yuan per square meter, breaking the local record for top-tier luxury homes. On March 9, five units of luxury duplexes at Galaxy Bay Peninsula No. 5 sold for a total of 718.7 million yuan, with unprecedented demand for luxury homes in the core area.

Compared to these record-breaking luxury sales, the primary market for affordable new homes in Guangzhou shows a more obvious “price reduction to increase volume” trend.

Guangzhou real estate agent Luo Jiamin told the reporter that many first-time buyer units are now being sold with discounts or special offers, “not offering discounts makes it hard to sell.”

“For example, the pre-finished price of the Huangpu Galaxy Bay Mountain project has been directly adjusted to starting at 19,000 yuan per square meter, with three options—unfinished, semi-furnished, and fully furnished—to attract buyers. The limited-time discount at Lihua New World Tianfu is directly 14% off, as low as 38,000 yuan per square meter,” Luo said. “The market is very pragmatic now. Without offering a fixed price or real discounts, even with many viewers, sales are difficult.”

According to Zhongyuan Research’s data, as of the end of February 2026, Guangzhou’s narrow inventory was 14.164 million square meters, a decrease of 13,000 square meters from January. Due to a general decrease in new supply in key areas in February, the new housing market mainly absorbed existing stock, with inventory slightly declining and decreasing for four consecutive months.

In Shenzhen, since 2026, there has been a noticeable slowdown in the “supply rhythm” of new homes. According to Midland Realty, only nine residential projects obtained pre-sale permits this year, far fewer than the 12 projects in the same period last year.

This slower pace of new project launches prevents large-scale market entry, directly leading to overall new home transaction volumes being significantly lower than second-hand homes. The market shows a structural rebound pattern with core areas maintaining volume and stable prices, while first-time buyer areas rely on price reductions to increase sales.

According to Centaline Property data, as of March 12, Shenzhen’s total transaction volume for commercial residential units was 964 units, with 1,703 second-hand units transferred.

Some Shenzhen projects released hot sales posters in March

Although overall new home transactions in Shenzhen are weaker than second-hand sales, the reporter noticed that many projects have released hot sales posters since March. For example, Longhua’s HongRongYuan GuanCheng sold 41 units on March 7-8, YuanYongCheng·ChengMing Garden sold 39 units last week, and China State Construction’s PengChen YunZhu sold 32 units in one week.

“With high-quality land parcels in core cities gradually coming to market in 2025, and some developers increasing promotional efforts, market demand is expected to gradually release in March. The ‘small spring’ in core cities remains promising,” said Zhongzhi Research Institute.