Questioning AI · How Israel’s Airstrike Strategy Is Changing the Nature of Warfare

Author | He Yi

Editor | A Shu

“It feels like tear gas is in the air; the war has entered our throats,” said a resident of Tehran who wished to remain anonymous.

After multiple oil depots and refineries were bombed, Tehran looked like a city swallowed whole.

The first thing people noticed was the rain. It was a strange rain—black droplets falling on rooftops and streets, leaving paint-like stains on cars and windowsills. Local residents said that when the rain stopped, the entire street became greasy and blackened.

Damage to vehicles and thick smoke near an oil storage facility in Tehran, March 8 / Source: Xinhua

Soon, people began feeling physical symptoms: headaches, dizziness, sore throats, persistent coughing.

On the night of March 7, local time, Israel carried out airstrikes near Tehran’s Shahran, Agdasiyah, and Shahr-e Rey districts, targeting major oil depots and infrastructure in nearby Karaj. A blinding orange flash lit up the horizon, followed by a night-long fire caused by the large fuel reserves igniting.

The Red Crescent warned residents to stay indoors, stating that toxic hydrocarbons, sulfur oxides, and nitrogen oxides had spread in the air. Any precipitation could turn into corrosive acid rain. Signs of pollution have appeared in Tehran’s soil and water resources. It’s unclear how far the toxic smoke will spread. Iran’s Foreign Ministry claimed this act involved genocide.

The war’s targets shifted to oil and gas facilities and other infrastructure, with no one able to remain unaffected. More concerning is that a primary school in southern Iran was instantly destroyed in what was described as a “target misidentification,” killing 180 people, most of whom were female students.

On February 28, a school in Minab, Iran, was attacked / Source: Xinhua

On March 11, U.S. media reported that U.S. military investigations found that the U.S. military might be responsible for the deadly missile strike on the Iranian girls’ school. Although Trump previously denied involvement and claimed Iran should be held responsible, initial investigations suggest that the strike with “Tomahawk” cruise missiles was based on a “misjudgment”: U.S. forces, using outdated intelligence provided by the Defense Intelligence Agency, mistakenly identified a building that had long been converted into a school as part of an Iranian military base.

This raises new questions: can such reckless attacks on civilian facilities be dismissed simply as “mistakes”?

For those far from the battlefield, war is often still understood as a conflict happening somewhere else. But in the Middle East, ordinary people are facing two different kinds of consequences simultaneously: one from pollution caused by explosions, and another from the chaos and loss of control increasingly evident in the war itself.

Pollution is beginning to enter the air cycle, water systems, and food chain; meanwhile, the errors, recklessness, and out-of-control nature of the war are spreading into the broader international system.

Damage near an oil storage facility in Tehran, March 8 / Source: Xinhua

Currently, Iran has launched a new round of attacks on global energy supplies and neighboring countries, with six ships attacked in the Persian Gulf within just two days. Fuel tanks and oil tankers have also caught fire at sea, causing oil prices to rise again. At the same time, Israel announced it had begun “large-scale” attacks on Iran’s infrastructure across the country, with Netanyahu openly stating that they are “destroying the Iranian regime.”

This war has already evolved into a global chaos far beyond regional conflict.

01

Like an Earthquake

Since the attacks began, residents of Tehran have gradually become accustomed to the roar of fighter jets in the night sky. But most still believe that their lives are safe from immediate danger.

That is, until the night of March 7, at 10:30 p.m.

According to independent media Drop Site News, 24-year-old Sagar (pseudonym) was at home in northeastern Tehran with her parents and sister. That night, three loud explosions suddenly erupted.

Damage from the airstrike in Tehran, March 7 / Source: Xinhua

“The house was really shaking, worse than an earthquake,” she recalled. “I remember the earthquake in Tehran in 2020, but this was much stronger.”

Windows in the kitchen and living room shattered instantly, and the chandelier swung violently like a pendulum. At the moment of the explosion, her mother was standing by the sink washing dishes. The shockwave knocked her to the ground, and her head hit the floor hard.

They called emergency services and waited for the ambulance to arrive under guidance from the operator. About 15 minutes later, medical personnel arrived and took her mother to a nearby hospital. The doctors confirmed it was only a head injury with no serious damage.

Damage from an oil storage facility fire in Tehran, March 7 / Source: Xinhua

The next day, when Sagar’s family returned to their apartment after leaving the hospital, they finally realized the extent of the damage.

“Everything was covered in soot,” she said. “Our white refrigerator was completely black. When I ran my finger across the table, my fingertip was immediately coated in black oil. My sister and I spent two hours trying to clean the room. The damp cloth quickly became soaked with thick black sludge, and cleaning agents and tissues were almost useless.”

“When we finally finished packing to leave, my nails were full of black dirt,” she added. “Even breathing in the living room made my lungs hurt.”

The acute symptoms they experienced were just the beginning of pollution exposure.

Professor Andrea Sella, an inorganic chemistry expert at University College London, explained that burning crude oil releases a complex mixture of toxic chemicals, including aromatic compounds known to interact with DNA and associated with cancer risk. In a city like Tehran, with a population of over nine million, “people are actually exposed to a real chemical ‘cocktail.’”

Damage near an oil storage facility in Tehran, March 8 / Source: Xinhua

As oil tanks and pipelines are damaged, fuel and residues may seep into the soil and, under rainfall, spread to wider areas, even risking contamination of drinking water systems.

The Conflict and Environment Observatory (CEOBS), which studies environmental impacts of conflicts, has recorded hundreds of incidents in Iran and surrounding regions that could pose environmental risks. Its director, Doug Weir, noted that due to internet restrictions and delays in satellite imagery, the actual number is likely underestimated.

Sagar said she never expected an oil depot next to residential areas to be targeted.

Many Iranians share this “unexpected” feeling. Over the past two weeks, multiple civilian facilities in Tehran and other cities have been damaged. The Red Crescent reports that nearly 20,000 buildings have been affected, including at least 16,000 residential units, 77 healthcare facilities, and 65 schools.

Among these, the explosion at a girls’ school in the southern port city of Minab drew particular attention.

Damage from the attack on a school in Minab, March 12 / Source: Xinhua

Iranian officials repeatedly emphasize the scale of civilian casualties caused by this conflict. Deputy Minister of Health Ali Jafarian told Al Jazeera that among the confirmed 1,250 deaths, most were civilians, including about 200 children and 200 women, with over 12,000 injured.

UNHCR reports that 3.2 million people have been displaced within Iran.

Meanwhile, some facilities that could trigger even greater disasters if damaged have also become targets.

The Natanz uranium enrichment facility related to Iran’s nuclear program was severely damaged in the airstrikes. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that some critical structures at the site have been destroyed.

These locations are neither frontlines nor what ordinary people consider “battlefields.”

But in this war, launched arbitrarily by the Trump administration and lacking clear strategic goals, chaos has become the norm. Israel’s methods in the operation increasingly resemble a comprehensive strike that disregards international humanitarian law boundaries.

02

Systematic Destruction

If these attacks are merely dismissed as “mistakes,” it fails to explain the nature of this war.

Over decades of conflicts, the Israeli military has developed a different approach from traditional warfare. The targets are no longer just military forces or facilities but broader social systems: energy, communications, transportation, and urban infrastructure.

This strategy is summarized in the “Dahiya Doctrine,” named after the 2006 Lebanon War’s massive bombing of the Dahiya district in Beirut. Its core idea is to impose overwhelming destruction to force the opponent to bear unbearable social and political costs.

Under this logic, collateral damage is no longer seen as a risk to be avoided. This concept of collateral damage, often debated in international humanitarian law, has become a strategic goal for the Israeli military.

Damage in Tehran, March 12 / Source: Xinhua

In recent years, automation in target recognition has amplified this approach. During the Gaza conflict, Israel used an AI system called “Lavender,” capable of rapidly screening large numbers of “potential combatants” and marking them for attack. Intelligence officers then often tracked targets using a mode called “Where’s Daddy,” attacking when the target returned to their home—believed to be the easiest moment to lock onto their location.

In this mode, assassinations often occur when targets are with their families, and their relatives, neighbors, or nearby civilians are also caught in the strikes.

But Iran faces not only this brutal logic of warfare.

In U.S. military operations, risks also come from another dimension—reckless and chaotic strategic decision-making.

Investigations into the missile strike on the Iranian girls’ school show that the officer responsible for target coordinates at the Central Command used outdated data from the Defense Intelligence Agency, mistakenly identifying the school as a military target. Despite multiple agencies, including DIA, NGA, and CENTCOM, reviewing the data, the error was not caught.

Human Rights Watch analyzed satellite images and pointed out that the building had been separated from the military base for at least ten years, with an independent entrance. By 2017, the school’s courtyard even clearly showed the markings of a football field.

Rescue scene at the attacked school in Minab, Iran / Source: Xinhua

“Anyone who looks at it can tell it’s a school,” said Michael Page, HRW’s Deputy Middle East Director.

Much important information about this investigation remains undisclosed, but Trump appears unconcerned.

Even with evidence that the “Tomahawk” cruise missile mistakenly hit the school, the U.S. is the only country with such missiles involved in this conflict. Yet Trump, without evidence, hinted at Iran possessing Tomahawks during a press conference.

If the final confirmation shows that the school was indeed mistakenly targeted by U.S. forces, it would become one of the most severe civilian casualties caused by the U.S. military in recent decades.

03

Community

The chaos caused by the war has not stayed within Iran.

Iranian military spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaqar warned after the attacks: “Prepare for $200 oil, because oil prices depend on regional stability, and you are the ones destroying that stability.”

As the conflict escalates, maritime security in the Gulf region rapidly deteriorates. On March 11, three ships were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz. A Thai bulk carrier, Mayuree Naree, caught fire and was abandoned by its crew. Japanese and Marshall Islands-flagged ships were also damaged.

On the same day, a foreign oil tanker was attacked by an unmanned explosive drone near Basra, Iraq, and caught fire, resulting in one death.

Damage to an attacked oil tanker near Basra, Iraq, March 12 / Source: Xinhua

To date, at least 13 attacks on commercial ships have occurred in the Gulf waters.

Behind these unidentified attacks, there seems to be an even more dangerous signal—Iran is not afraid to escalate the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. intelligence sources have revealed that Iran has begun laying mines in the strait. The U.S. Central Command announced that U.S. forces “eliminated” 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels in the area, which Iran denied.

Threats at sea are becoming increasingly difficult to identify. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that a vessel was hit by an unidentified projectile about 25 nautical miles northwest of Ras Al Hamra, UAE, with details still under investigation.

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about one-fifth of the world’s oil transportation. When conflict reaches this route, war is no longer confined to one country.

Geographical location of the Strait of Hormuz / Source: CCTV News

Iranian armed forces’ spokesperson Hatam Abiyah later announced that the previous phase of “reciprocal retaliation” had ended. Iran will now implement sustained “chain strikes,” no longer maintaining a one-to-one retaliation rhythm.

Some shipping insurance companies have begun raising war risk premiums for Gulf routes, and shipping companies are reassessing whether to continue using this passage.

Faced with rising risks, G7 energy ministers issued a joint statement on March 11, saying that countries are discussing options to escort commercial ships and are prepared to use strategic energy reserves if necessary to stabilize global energy markets.

Currently, 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) have officially agreed to release about 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, the largest joint release in the agency’s history.

IEA member countries agree to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves on March 11 to address global oil supply tensions caused by U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran / Source: Xinhua (Ahmed Goma)

As risks continue to rise, countries are increasingly discussing energy supply security and prices. But in joint statements, another set of facts is almost invisible: schools hit, oil depots burning for days, and missile misfires still under investigation.

Meanwhile, the conflict is spreading to new frontlines.

On March 12, Israel announced the start of a new large-scale air campaign against “regime infrastructure” inside Iran.

Almost simultaneously, Israeli jets launched “wide-ranging” strikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Beirut, with explosions heard across the city. In the past two weeks, Israeli attacks on Lebanon have resulted in 634 deaths, including 91 children and 47 women, with 1,586 injured.

Damage site from Hezbollah rocket attack in southern Beirut, March 12 / Source: Xinhua (Gil Cohen Magen)

In the past two weeks, the war has rapidly expanded across multiple levels.

For a long time, people have viewed this interconnected world as a cooperative system—trade networks, energy markets, and supply chains forming a community.

But in this war, the same systems are transmitting another reality: pollution, panic, energy shocks, and expanding security risks.

When war enters these interconnected systems, it ultimately affects everyone dependent on them.

Editor-in-Chief | Zhang Lai

Design | Ba Jin