3.17 Dodging the Market Crash: Is Chemicals a Graduation Photo or a High-Low Reversal?

Like and view first, earn millions daily. Keep it up with tips and donations. Good luck always! If my morning market thoughts help you, I hope you won’t be stingy with likes. Double-tap the comment section with 小宝666! [Taoguba]

From now on, all follow and unfollow votes will include a logical breakdown. Brothers interested in learning can review them together with the morning market thoughts. Once you learn the logic, you can gradually add your own understanding!

This Friday at 8 PM, the platform has arranged a live broadcast. Brothers, please support us. If you can, click to urge the broadcast. If you have questions, leave a comment below today’s post. I will record them. Brothers who want to speed up the process will get priority answers. The live broadcast time is the priority. Bring your notebooks and quickly supplement your knowledge!

First, an overview of the market

Let’s review the morning market thoughts. The most frustrating part is the Friday divergence in electricity stocks. Whether it can be repaired on Monday or not, the tide has receded. Today, many stocks are playing catch-up, but most of the rebound stocks are relatively new; the older ones remain unchanged. Yesterday’s Pioneer Shun Na was underwater all day. Such fragmented market conditions have little profit potential. The sectors are extremely competitive internally: lower positions have traders, higher positions have none. Highs remain unbreakable, so sectors lack recognition and driving force. Infinite high-low switching is favored by quantitative trading.

In chemicals, yesterday’s electric stocks were casualties. Today, electric stocks opened strong, rebounded after some repair, then weakened again. Early recognition showed Chitianhua surged then fell back, and Jinniu kept selling off. Yesterday’s late-trading Baichuan continued to rise and fall, dragging the sector down further. Despite this strength, Sanfangxiang still steadily advanced, which is unsettling.

The AI hardware sector led the market’s recovery yesterday, mainly driven by Nvidia’s GTC conference. After the meeting, Nvidia’s stock surged then plummeted. Looking at pre-market tech stocks in the US, most are falling. The GTC conference mainly involved grand promises, repeatedly telling the market AI has no bubble, but no substantial breakthroughs were seen. So, the AI hardware rally yesterday was short-lived; today, it’s mostly opening high and then dropping sharply.

As I mentioned in the morning thoughts, AI hardware should be accumulated at low positions, waiting for a rally. Don’t chase high in a market with low volume; chasing institutional stocks will be painful. Before the market opened, oil futures were still falling. Under such conditions, the entire A-shares market can’t rise. During the session, financials and real estate supported the market. I checked the volume—almost 2 trillion yuan—shrinking volume while boosting financials. Not only does this drain the market, but it also risks a pullback.

Regarding sentiment, the market reached the third board, but the number of limit-down stocks hasn’t increased. The market remains fragmented: on one hand, high prices can’t rise further; on the other, it’s not a deep decline. Most stocks on the third board are large-cap stocks in industry chains, heavily manipulated. If there’s a breakthrough, it should ferment and drive the market, but currently, it’s just stubbornness, ignoring sector sentiment.

Yesterday, offshore wind and chemicals both made late moves. Today, we should observe whether their bidding prices strengthen. So far, they haven’t, but from the repair situation, offshore wind looks better, especially with hydrogen energy news and related sectors showing strength.

The two stocks, Sanfangxiang and Fasheng, both advanced to the third tier. Such high-level promotions often suggest no new positions at low levels. Sanfangxiang’s opening was less decisive than Fasheng’s, which is more aggressive. These two seem to be a package: one is tough, leading the other. Previously, they were in the same stock pool; currently, Xin Duoduo is promoting Fasheng.

The second-tier stocks include only Chitianhua, which failed to advance today. It’s still at a decent position but offered good premiums. Yaxiang Integration had been declining for a long time, then broke out to new highs—probably institutional holdings. Jingtou Development launched a second wave, supporting the real estate sector. Xihua Technology is a latecomer to the “悟道” (enlightenment) board; after breaking out, it fermented in batches. From a new stock perspective, fermentation looks good, but new stocks shouldn’t be viewed as a sector. If many new stocks ferment in the market, be cautious—indicating defensive sentiment is heavy. Also, many new stocks hit daily limits, causing the index to dip at noon.

The first-tier stocks, with a one-level promotion, have a very low promotion rate. Today, only Shenhua Development (Shenhua Fa) hit a limit-up, mainly due to industry chain concerns. Be cautious of potential pullbacks. The first stock, Shunhao, from Shanghai, related to space computing power and industrial cannabis, was mentioned at Nvidia’s GTC but opened flat. The second, Xinya Electronics, from Zhejiang, involved copper cables and photovoltaics; Nvidia’s GTC mentioned fiber optics can’t fully replace copper cables. An Yang Steel from Henan and Jiu Steel Hongxing from Gansu are also notable.

Key individual stocks:

• Lu Hua Technology hit the limit-up in the afternoon, but there were missed orders. It can be seen as a rebound of Chitianhua, which still resists giving way and is overextending the sector. Early positions should consider whether the pattern can break away; late positions can look for opportunities to break away from Chitianhua’s breakout.

Thanks again to all brothers who supported me yesterday with tips: @asdfghzxcvbn, @WolfKing1000li, @dandy3574, @IAmHanPaoPao, @CookPorridge, @NanjingEbu, @BlackCatDirector, @NotLettuce, @BayStreamG, and many more.

Thanks to the top supporters: @NanjingEbu, @Zigqwer; second-tier: @Luxin, @Reinhardt8735; third-tier: @xyzzxcc, @Nirvana2018, @ZhangShixun, @LettuceOut, @IAmStillThatHusky.

Special thanks to those who tipped with gold: @HongLiuGong, @PleaseDon’tStandUnderTheWindow, @QingXiaoHuai, @DreamCity, @lyh98888, @JunhaoBigGuy, @FreeKing, @XiaoTianYi, @AlmostGentleman, @Elite, @XiangNiu, @OrosFate, @GeniusFireDragon, @MaoMaoMoney, @Lee1987, @shaks, @MattBrother, @zqzq1996, @HuaXinSometimes, @GoodLuckHaha, @XixiHahaha, @ZhiXingYiHe, @XiaoDuXiaoDu96, @OneCow, @WolfKing1000li, @UnrecordedCost, @PeonySeller, @ZhiXingYiHe168067, @BravePig, @SimpleOnePen, @DaoQianKun1, @FafaFafa, @BianYa, @FocusOnUltraShortLeaders, @LiangHu, @BaiChengBrothers, @HuibenBenJiu, @BackToOrigin, @QiduWatchingTheShow, @sdffghhjkkk, @AutoChime, @XiaoXiaoHuaGe, @ZhangShixun, @BuYanBuYu, @Cheng888, @DaMaoNotMixed, @NaXiaoXiansheng, @ZiJinHua, @ZhangYouJin, @OneBrokenBell, @NanjingEbu, @PennyDumper, @PaoDuanZhi, @WangDeFa, @RuoshuiZiYan, @JuhuangApan, @dandy3574, @AAAKang, @BuDongM, @YouShouJiuLing, @ChanyingHaochi, @BuZuoJiuCaiHaoNian, @ChuxueCao, @ZGXDaidai, @Kaisen, @JiangxiXiao, @ZuoShouHuaYu, @ZaiXiaAGuaiJianChou, @ZhejiangYuYaoRenZhanglangEba111, @OneYiLuHong, @YourGoodNeighborWangGe, @ShuiYangJiangPan, @Are21, @XiXiXi, @BurningRedRiverNightFishing, @EatMianDaRen, @FoamDongDong, @guyd, @HongTaoK, @TheWorldOfPaint, @HalfJarWater888, @Magickang, @ZhangOnlySeventeenWan, @Agag777, @DuFeiLun, @FreedomAerospace, @GuQinYang, @DizzyTime. You brothers are the silent supporters who initially supported me. Wishing everyone daily prosperity!

No need for many oil tickets, seven are enough. Thank you all for highlighting the post; it’s my motivation to keep updating.