#比特币站上7.5万美元

1. BTC solidly holding $75,000 — is this a signal heading toward $80,000?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart has recorded a rare 8-day winning streak with moderate volume expansion. The price not only firmly broke above the $75,000 level but even touched $76,000 at one point. This movement is significant — it has effectively broken through the strong resistance zone of $70,000-$73,000, which had previously suppressed multiple bounces.

Currently, the daily MACD shows a bullish crossover with expanding positive histogram bars, indicating bull momentum has not weakened; the RSI indicator sits at 65-70, remaining in the strong zone but not yet entering overbought territory (above 80), meaning there is still safe room for further upside. From a Fibonacci retracement perspective, once the $75,000 level (0.236 retracement) is firmly held, technical traders' next target will directly lock onto the $85,000-$93,000 range. The only near-term consideration is the $76,000 area, which has served as a multiple resistance point in 2026, potentially attracting some profit-taking pressure, but the overall trend has shifted into bull attack mode.

2. FOMC meeting approaching — will the market reverse or accelerate?

This is the biggest uncertainty factor at present and the primary variable facing short-term technicals. While the market widely expects the Fed's rate decision on March 19th to hold steady (extremely high probability of no change), the risk lies in the updated "dot plot" and economic projections summary.

From a technical analysis angle, before major macro events unfold, markets typically experience "intensified volatility" or "liquidity contraction." If the dot plot shows further reduction in rate-cut expectations (hawkish), risk assets could face pressure, causing potential pullbacks in crypto prices. However, on-chain data shows strong institutional buying (such as continued accumulation by Strategy) and continuous net inflows from spot ETFs, providing robust "technical support" for the market. Therefore, regardless of the meeting outcome, as long as price doesn't break below $74,000 effectively (the strong support from MA7 and the breakout platform), the current uptrend channel won't be destroyed, and after a potential dip, it may actually attract more buying interest.

3. Trading logic: chase strength or take profits?

Based on the above "bullish but facing macro variables" technical backdrop, the optimal strategy now should be "buy on dips rather than chase highs or blindly exit tops."

1. Long logic: Currently the daily MA7 (around $74,000) has formed strong support, and the 4-hour Bollinger Band midline is also rising. For those without positions, this represents a "right-side trading" attempt point. If price consolidates around $74,000-$74,500, it's an opportunity for light long positions with stop-loss set below $73,500, targeting continued upside testing of $76,500-$77,000.
2. Wait-and-see logic: Since FOMC is the biggest short-term variable, chasing strength near $76,000 has lower value. Once momentum faces resistance (such as stalling candlestick patterns near $76,000), the short-term may first pullback to accumulate.
3. Warning signals: Despite the price surge, market sentiment remains in the "extreme fear" zone (23). This divergence between price/volume and sentiment indicates many investors have missed out. Only when sentiment turns euphoric and RSI breaks above 80 should one be alert to potential cyclical tops.

Summary: BTC has achieved a technical breakout, but the $76,000 level combined with the FOMC meeting may intensify near-term volatility. Rather than guessing whether the $80,000 level can be reached in one shot, it's better to closely watch $74,000 as the short-term bull/bear dividing line. Above this level maintain bullish thinking; below it switch to defense. ETH shows stronger momentum but similarly needs confirmation of resistance around the $2,400 level.