A-share market's three major indices closed lower, Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 1%, insurance sector bucked the trend and strengthened

The three major A-share indices all declined today. By the close, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.85%, closing at 4,049.91 points; the Shenzhen Component dropped 1.87%, closing at 14,039.73 points; and the ChiNext Index declined 2.29%, closing at 3,280.06 points. The combined trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 22.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 115.4 billion yuan from yesterday.

Most industry sectors closed lower, with insurance, chemical fibers, and real estate services leading the gains. Communication equipment, electronic chemicals, components, power equipment, non-metallic materials, marine equipment, batteries, and aerospace equipment saw the largest declines.

In individual stocks, fewer than 900 stocks rose, with over 50 hitting the daily limit. Major financial stocks performed countertrend, with insurance and banking sectors leading the rally. Aijian Group hit the daily limit, while CITIC Bank, New China Insurance, and China Pacific Insurance all closed higher. The chemical sector was active again, with Chitianhua hitting three consecutive daily limits, and Sanfangxiang, Jinzengda, and Luhua Technology also hitting the limit. The real estate sector fluctuated higher, with Zhongzhou Holdings and Jinneng Real Estate hitting the daily limit. On the downside, sectors like computing hardware and semiconductors led declines, including a collective adjustment of the CPO concept, with stocks like Changguang Huaxin, Deke Li, Luobote, and Guangku Technology falling sharply.

Today’s Highlights

U.S. Clarifies False Reports on Trump’s Possible Delay in China Visit

The Financial Times reported that U.S. President Trump “threatened to delay his visit to China due to concerns over ensuring navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz.” In response, U.S. Treasury Secretary, White House Press Secretary Levitt, and Trump himself all publicly clarified the matter. Bessant stated that if Trump’s visit to China is postponed, it is not because Trump requested China to ensure the safety of the Strait of Hormuz. The reports are completely false. If the meeting with Chinese leaders is rescheduled, it will be because “Trump believes he should stay in the U.S. during the ongoing conflict.”

Li Chenggang: China and the U.S. Achieve Preliminary Consensus on Some Issues

On March 15-16, local time, China and the U.S. held economic and trade consultations in Paris, France. Li Chenggang, China’s International Trade Negotiator and Vice Minister of Commerce, said that over the past day and a half, both sides conducted frank, in-depth, and constructive discussions, reaching preliminary consensus on some issues. Both sides will continue to maintain the consultation process moving forward.

5-Minute Quick Overview of Huang Renxun’s GTC Speech: Trillions in Revenue, LPU, Space Chips, One-Click “Shrimp Farming”

In the early hours of Tuesday Beijing time, NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun delivered a two-and-a-half-hour speech, bombarding the AI industry with hardware and software concepts. For capital markets, today was also a fruitful day—most of the anticipated hype concepts were realized, and Huang Renxun unexpectedly provided the latest explosive financial outlook for computing chips’ revenue.

Three Departments Launch Key Initiatives; Hydrogen Energy Sector Enters Critical Pilot Stage!

On March 16, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on conducting comprehensive hydrogen energy pilot projects. Based on annual reports, quick reports, or forecast median data, a total of 19 hydrogen energy companies are expected to turn a profit by 2025. Baofeng Energy and SAIC Motor lead with net profits of 11.35 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan, respectively; China National Chemical Corporation, Guanghui Energy, Foton Motor, and China Automotive Research Institute all report net profits exceeding 1 billion yuan.

World’s Largest Bauxite Exporter Considers Export Controls

According to reports late Monday Beijing time, Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite producer, is discussing with miners about controlling the amount of ore released into the market to curb the downward trend in raw material prices. As a raw material for aluminum oxide production, bauxite prices have nearly halved since early 2025. Last year, Guinea’s bauxite exports increased by over a quarter year-on-year, reaching 183 million tons.

Institutional Views

Guojin Securities: Limited Downside Space for A-Share Indices

The market is gradually trading based on expectations of stagflation caused by sharp oil price increases. Despite concerns about future stagflation, the economy shows strong adaptive capacity, and before the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, the global economy was still recovering. Drawing from the Russia-Ukraine conflict experience, countries will pay more attention to energy independence, which could create opportunities for China’s power equipment and new energy sectors amid risks. The market’s contradiction lies in asset prices racing ahead of fundamentals. In the near term, A-shares may face overall valuation digestion, with limited downside at the index level, but structural differentiation remains key. Stocks representing China’s resources and manufacturing sectors are best positioned globally during turbulent times. Priority assets include strategic resource assets like crude oil, oil transportation, copper, aluminum, rare earths, coal, and rubber; second, Chinese manufacturing firms with global leading advantages or accelerating overseas expansion; third, structural opportunities in consumer sectors as negative factors reverse, such as tourism and scenic spots, condiments and fermented products, beer and other alcohols, pharmaceuticals, and medical aesthetics.

CMB International: Short-term Oil Price Rise Keeps A-Share Volatility

Geopolitical conflicts shift the core market tension toward supply security and strategic resources, changing the logic from risk aversion to re-inflation concerns. Rising oil prices reinforce inflation expectations, suppress rate cuts, and impact most assets. The influence of oil prices on inflation is likely to be pulse-like, with a very low chance of severe inflation similar to the 1970s-80s. Regarding monetary policy, short-term inflation fears will pose greater obstacles to U.S. rate cuts, likely delaying the rate cut window to the second half of the year. However, if conflicts ease later, market risk appetite could quickly recover, and A-shares will remain mainly volatile. Looking ahead, short-term geopolitical disturbances and rising nationalism support strategic value in resource commodities. In the medium to long term, policies against “internal competition,” potential synchronized demand recovery in China and the U.S., and the return of the gold shadow anchor could accelerate PPI turning positive.

CITIC Construction Investment: Middle East Tensions May Create Strategic Opportunities for China

As the US-Iran conflict enters a standoff phase, crude oil prices fluctuate sharply. China’s diversified oil imports, energy restructuring, and strategic reserves will provide buffers. However, under global risk appetite volatility and domestic market liquidity constraints, A-shares may remain volatile in the short term. If the US-Iran conflict persists long-term, three main impacts could occur: 1) rising oil prices and global inflation, disrupting Fed rate cuts; 2) weakening of the petrodollar system, with China potentially becoming a global safe haven, benefiting RMB assets; 3) creating strategic opportunities for China, leveraging a “coal + new energy” dual energy foundation to ensure energy security and possibly lead global energy transition. Current disturbances and opportunities coexist; it is recommended to adopt a “physical assets + certain growth” dual approach. On one hand, revaluation of physical assets like coal, coal chemicals, power grids, utilities, and petrochemicals remains valuable; on the other, sectors benefiting from electrification, such as wind, solar, and energy storage, have clear growth prospects, supported by AI-driven price increases and power shortages.