QCP: Expectations of stagflation increase, BTC demonstrates relative resilience

CycleProphet · 2026-03-11T10:56:40+00:00

Under the impact of the Iran conflict, BTC briefly dipped below $63,000 before rebounding to $70,000, showing some resilience. Implied volatility in the options market has decreased, and the risk reversal is negative. The macroeconomy exhibits stagflation characteristics, with U.S. stocks under pressure and U.S. Treasury yields rising. The market is focused on today's U.S. CPI data, which could influence interest rate cut expectations.

CycleProphet

2026-03-11 10:56:40

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Deep Tide TechFlow News, March 11, According to QCP Capital analysis, amid geopolitical shocks triggered by the Iran conflict, BTC briefly dipped below $63,000 before rebounding to around $70,000, showing relative resilience. The options market volatility has fallen back to the mid-50s, with risk reversals still negative, indicating ongoing demand for downside protection. On the macro front, the stock market is under pressure, U.S. Treasury yields are rising, and rate cut expectations have been pushed back, reflecting stagflation characteristics. Regarding oil prices, Brent crude briefly surged to $120 before retreating, as the IEA plans to coordinate the release of 300-400 million barrels from strategic reserves. Currently, BTC behaves more as a liquidity-sensitive macro tool rather than a high-beta risk asset. The market is focused on today’s U.S. CPI data, which could determine whether rate cut expectations can be reignited.

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