QCP analysis indicates that BTC has shown resilience after geopolitical shocks, with prices rebounding to around $70,000. Long-term holders have significantly accumulated in the $60,000 to $70,000 range. On the macro front, the market has entered a "stagflation" pricing mode. G7 and IEA plan to coordinate the release of 300 million to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, with the scale expected to set a record to counter oil price volatility. In the options market, implied volatility has fallen back to the mid-50% range, but risk reversals remain negative, reflecting that participants are still pricing tail risks and lack strong bullish confidence.