In the past six days, Iran's oil exports have exceeded pre-war levels!

Despite the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s crude oil exports have not decreased but instead increased, forming a stark contrast to neighboring Gulf countries forced to cut supplies.

On March 11, according to tanker tracking company Kpler data, over the past six days, Iran’s daily crude oil loading has risen to 2.1 million barrels, higher than the pre-incident export level of 2 million barrels in February. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other Gulf oil producers have been forced to cut supplies due to navigation restrictions and are urgently seeking alternative routes. The geopolitical rift caused by supply disruptions is accelerating.

Oil prices have been highly volatile due to US-Iran tensions. On Monday, market panic pushed Brent crude oil prices briefly up to nearly $120, a four-year high; then, following signals from Trump that “the war will end soon,” prices quickly retreated.

Currently, concerns over supply disruptions remain. JPMorgan estimates that if the Strait remains blocked for two weeks, the Gulf region will reduce about 3.8 million barrels of daily supply, more than 3% of global production. According to media reports citing sources, the G7 is urgently discussing the largest-ever strategic petroleum reserve release to mitigate potential shocks.

Hormuz Cloud Looms, Iran’s Export Channels Remain Operational

According to tanker tracking agency Kpler, since the outbreak of conflict, seven tankers have completed crude oil loading near Iran, with at least two recent operations located in the Persian Gulf. Despite the worsening security situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s oil export channels remain operational.

Since the US-Israel coalition launched airstrikes, Iran has repeatedly threatened to attack ships passing through the strait, causing many commercial vessels to reroute or halt. The International Maritime Organization reports that within less than two weeks of the conflict, ten ships near the Strait of Hormuz have been attacked by Iran, resulting in at least seven crew members dead.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson warned CNBC that oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz “must be very cautious.” In response, Trump told Fox News that stranded ships should “show courage” to pass through and said, “There’s nothing to fear. They don’t have a navy. We’ve sunk all their ships.”

Iran Explores Alternative Routes for Export

According to CNBC, Iran has resumed crude oil loading at the Jask oil and gas terminal located south of the Strait of Hormuz along the Oman Gulf coast. This move is seen as Tehran’s attempt to bypass the strait and explore alternative export routes amid current geopolitical tensions.

Jask is Iran’s only export route that does not require passing through the Strait of Hormuz, providing direct access to the Oman Sea. However, its operational efficiency is far lower than Iran’s main export hub—the Khark Island terminal near Hormuz Island.

Samir Madani, co-founder of tanker tracking firm TankerTrackers, said that one Iranian vessel is currently loading about 2 million barrels at Jask, marking the fifth such operation in five years. He noted that loading a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) at Jask can take up to 10 days, compared to just one or two days at Khark Island.

Kpler analyst Nhway Khin Soe believes that the reactivation of Jask indicates Tehran is evaluating alternative routes, but whether it can become a sustainable export channel remains uncertain. Madani bluntly stated that the facility “has some domestic propaganda value, but its logistical advantages are very limited.”

The tension in the Strait of Hormuz shows no signs of easing, and the global energy market continues to face ongoing supply risks. Analysts believe that the evolution of the geopolitical conflict remains the key variable influencing future oil prices.

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