Bullrun cryptocurrency is a matter of time: why the real growth is still ahead

Indeed, a crypto bull run is an event that has not fully occurred yet. Analyzing the global macroeconomic situation makes it clear that current market movements are logical, predictable, and free from anomalies. According to leading analysts’ forecasts, the real surge in digital assets is expected in the second quarter of 2026.

Gold is experiencing a historic boom: a signal of de-dollarization

Today, gold shows a sharp increase, leaving behind not only stocks but also cryptocurrencies. This movement reflects deep shifts in the behavior of the world’s major powers. China, Russia, India, and even the United States are actively increasing their gold reserves, signaling a deliberate move away from dollar-denominated assets.

Two key reasons have accelerated this process. First, the prolonged irresponsible fiscal policy of the US is gradually undermining trust in the dollar. Second, and critically, US sanctions against Russia, including freezing its foreign exchange reserves, have shattered the myth of the “safety of dollar assets.” Countries have realized: no one can guarantee the protection of funds stored in foreign currency.

From a game theory perspective, Russia, China, and India’s decisions are inevitable: increasing gold reserves and minimizing dollar holdings. Leading macro analysts, including Doomberg and Luke Gromen, have deeply studied this trend. It is a rational choice amid rising geopolitical risks.

The US stock market is a self-sustaining investment system

The growth of the US stock market appears calm—no signs of irrational frenzy. This is a direct result of structural changes in investment culture. Tens of millions of Americans automatically direct their monthly pension contributions into index funds like the S&P 500, regardless of market valuation.

This passive investment mechanism, long pointed out by analyst Mike Green, ensures stable, predictable growth. Simple mathematics works here: a constant inflow of capital supports an upward trend, even if there are no fundamental reasons for it.

Meanwhile, the US stock market has become a global magnet for capital. As the economy digitalizes, it becomes an ideal platform for wealth accumulation—thanks to system maturity, high liquidity, and exit mechanisms. Amazon, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft—they are entrenched here, reinforcing global dominance. This structure will persist until cryptocurrencies grow into their own global platform for capital formation.

The real estate market is a frozen asset as long as interest rates remain high

The US residential real estate market is in full stagnation. It holds about $37 trillion in value, but these assets are practically impossible to liquidate. This is the liquidity paradox: many assets, but minimal opportunities to use them.

The logic is simple. No one is rushing to refinance mortgages at current high rates—it’s more advantageous for those already locked into low rates. No one wants to sell a house and take out a new, more expensive loan. No one is taking out pawn loans secured by real estate with double-digit interest rates. High rates are a monument to immobility: assets exist, but they cannot be utilized.

This is a key point for understanding the future of the crypto market. Real estate is a liquidity accumulator that will eventually break free.

Cryptocurrencies: recovery, but the bull run is still ahead

Digital assets have recovered after the 2022 crash. The Fed’s rate hikes, Luna’s fall, FTX bankruptcy—all shattered the market, but it survived. Now, cryptocurrencies are growing, but without fanaticism: about 25% from the 2021 peak, still below Nvidia’s market cap and only a tenth of gold’s market size.

Why is the bull run a matter of the future, not the present? Because there is no large-scale macroeconomic liquidity. People mistakenly believe the 2021 boom was driven by pandemic stimuli and lockdowns. In reality, the true driver was a different force: monetization of American residential assets.

Back then, “crypto-parents” watching YouTubers like Hosk and clicking “buy” on Coinbase mostly financed their purchases by selling or refinancing their homes. They sold real estate, refinanced mortgages, took out loans secured by their properties. This was the main source of capital. It was this released liquidity from the real estate sector that boosted the crypto market in 2021.

Waiting for the launch: the bull run will come with lower interest rates

Analyzing all these factors, the current situation appears expected and logical. The forecast is that the real crypto bull run will start in the second quarter of 2026. By then, the Fed will likely lower rates to acceptable levels, the real estate market will begin to “thaw,” and accumulated liquidity will once again flow into risky assets.

If this scenario unfolds, over the next year and a half (roughly until Q3 2027), cryptocurrencies could experience a prolonged and intense growth. By the end of 2027 or early 2028, the accumulated enthusiasm might create a price bubble that will inevitably burst. Uncertainty around US pre-election policies could trigger a new wave of sell-offs and a bear cycle.

Therefore, the belief that the bull run is already behind us is incorrect—it’s just not truly started yet. Investors who believe in macroeconomic logic should continue accumulating positions on dips, deepen their industry research, and closely watch for the pivotal moment expected in the coming months of this year.