The cycle wisdom of Bitcoin enthusiasts: No need to guess the top during the main upward wave

Industry veteran observers offer a unique perspective on the current Bitcoin market. Known as the “Bitcoin Madman,” he believes that during the main bull phase of crypto assets, overly focusing on short-term top predictions often does more harm than good. Since late 2024 to early 2025, Bitcoin has continued to rise from the $80,000 high, with current prices fluctuating around $69,460. Its all-time high reached $126,080, reflecting that the market remains in a long-term upward cycle.

The Bitcoin Madman argues that for long-term investors, understanding cycle patterns and improving cognitive levels are the true competitive advantages.

Cognitive Elevation: The Wealth Gap Between Veterans and Newcomers

This seasoned commentator has observed an interesting phenomenon—随着四年一轮的牛熊周期不断轮回，新进入市场的投资者知识水平越来越高，他们掌握的信息、使用的工具甚至都不弱于市场老手。但真正的差异在于对周期规律的深刻理解和资金的积累深度。比特币狂人强调，老投资者的优势不在于交易技能，而在于对周期力量的敬畏和充足的资金储备。

Investors who have experienced multiple bull and bear cycles are actually holding less Bitcoin over time. Some sold too early during previous bull markets, others shifted into different projects. This highlights a reality—Bitcoin is no longer a tool for high-multiplier gains; it plays a more significant role as an “inflation hedge” in asset allocation.

Asset Allocation Strategies Under Cycle Laws

The Bitcoin Madman admits that if asked whether he would still invest in Bitcoin now, his answer is “whatever.” The logic behind this attitude is clear: Bitcoin’s returns have shifted from the “skyrocketing profits” era to the “stable allocation” era. Expecting this bull market to surpass the gains of tech stocks in the Nasdaq is unlikely.

This means investors should change their strategy—treat Bitcoin as a stable foundation in asset allocation rather than chasing huge alpha returns. After each new high, market attention often shifts to altcoins and other projects. Compared to holding onto Bitcoin stubbornly, timely reallocating some positions to other sectors often offers better value.

The Main Bull Phase Doesn’t Say Top—Steadfast Holding Logic

The core judgment of the Bitcoin Madman on the current market is—Bitcoin is still in the main upward wave, there’s no need to predict the top. Short-term fluctuations and flash crashes shouldn’t cause excessive worry. Instead, one should trust in the power of cycles and industry prospects.

Practically, the continued inflow into the US spot Bitcoin ETF will attract a new wave of institutional funds. In this macro context, individual investors should stay calm and avoid panicking over market rumors and minor fluctuations, which often lead to unnecessary panic.

Stay Calm and Wait—Cycles Will Reveal the Answers

The Bitcoin Madman’s final advice is: Stay steady and wait for the cycle to unfold. This industry remains a sunrise sector; the story is just beginning. When the market becomes lively and everyone is chasing, then it’s time to consider reducing positions or exiting. Until then, the best strategy is patience—let time and cycles work for you.

Disclaimer: This article reflects only analytical opinions and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own judgments and decisions. The author and related parties are not responsible for any direct or indirect losses resulting from such decisions.