After Earnings, Is MongoDB Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?

MongoDB MDB released its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report on March 2. Here’s Morningstar’s take on MongoDB’s earnings and stock.

Key Morningstar Metrics for MongoDB

• Fair Value Estimate

  : $303.00

• Morningstar Rating

  : ★★★

• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating

  : None

• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating

  : Very High

What We Thought of MongoDB’s Fiscal Q4 Earnings

MongoDB finished fiscal 2026 strong. Full-year revenue growth was 23%, and the adjusted operating margin of 19% improved by 360 basis points year over year. However, the company’s soft fiscal 2027 guidance and unexpected leadership changes sent shares down 24% in after-hours trading.

Why it matters: With enterprises showing stronger interest in data infrastructure for AI readiness, the timing of MongoDB’s go-to-market restructuring is unfortunate. The firm’s AI products, like vector search, are under pressure to take over key data workflows before customers turn to alternatives.

• MongoDB’s go-to-market leadership shuffle happened only four months after its new CEO took office. The president of field operations and chief revenue officer are both leaving the firm, with a new chief customer officer joining. The new team will need time to reset its sales momentum.
• Vector search and embeddings both saw user count double over the past year, but we think these AI offerings should scale even faster, given MongoDB’s adjacency to the retrieval augment generation workflow, a key process providing contexts for large language models.

The bottom line: We maintain our $303 per share fair value estimate for no-moat MongoDB. Shares appear undervalued following the post-earnings selloff. We are optimistic about AI-led growth opportunities for MongoDB, assuming the firm can reach a broader audience looking to build an RAG pipeline.

• With MongoDB Atlas’ net revenue retention expanding for three consecutive quarters to 121%, we think its long-term demand remains strong. We are confident that the company can maintain mid-to-high-teens annual revenue growth over the next five years.

Coming up: Management’s fiscal 2027 revenue growth guidance of $2.86-2.90 billion is nearly 600 basis points lower than fiscal 2026’s growth. In addition, management guides a moderate 80-basis-point adjusted operating margin expansion, 280 basis points lower than fiscal 2026.

Fair Value Estimate for MongoDB

With its 3-star rating, we believe MongoDB’s stock is fairly valued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $303 per share, which implies a fiscal 2027 enterprise value/sales multiple of 8 times. We expect the firm to achieve a five-year compound annual growth rate of 17%.

MongoDB has established itself as the mainstream solution for document-oriented databases. Between fiscal 2022 and the first half of fiscal 2026, the average annual recurring revenue for major customers who spend over $100,000 a year doubled. Expanding workloads from existing customers is key to supporting MongoDB’s double-digit top-line growth through fiscal 2035. The boom in AI-powered applications should provide a continued tailwind for MongoDB’s expansion.

Read more about MongoDB’s fair value estimate.

Economic Moat Rating

We assign MongoDB a no-moat rating because we currently see limited adoption of document-oriented databases for mission-critical workloads that embody strong switching costs. MongoDB’s structural design makes it an optimized tool for agile software development; however, too much flexibility can also lead to maintenance headaches in the long run. Therefore, customers tend to stick with relational databases like PostgreSQL for easier data governance. While MongoDB’s annual recurring revenue expansion rate is high at around 120% and it is a widely regarded leader among document-oriented databases, we need more evidence that the company can remain an integral part of the enterprise tech stack in the long term before awarding it a moat.

Read more about MongoDB’s economic moat.

Financial Strength

We think MongoDB is financially stable, thanks to its prudent acquisition approach. As of fiscal year-end 2026, MongoDB had over $2.3 billion in cash and equivalents, and its cash and equivalents balance has grown steadily over the past five years. MongoDB’s $220 million Voyage AI deal is the only major acquisition in the company’s history, which added some goodwill to its balance sheet. That said, goodwill should remain as a very small part of MongoDB’s total assets, and we don’t view goodwill impairment as a major concern for MongoDB’s balance sheet strength.

MongoDB redeemed all its convertible senior notes in fiscal 2025, and the company is now debt-free. We recognize that MongoDB has a limited track record of generating positive operating cash flow, and management’s underwhelming outlook for fiscal 2027 adds another layer of uncertainty to MongoDB’s cash flow trajectory. However, we believe MongoDB’s cash balance is at a healthy level, and the company’s leverage should remain very low in the foreseeable future.

Read more about MongoDB’s financial strength.

Risk and Uncertainty

We assign MongoDB a Very High Uncertainty Rating due to intense market competition and uncertainty around new workloads arising from AI-powered application development. MongoDB’s versatility means the company is competing with multiple database vendors at once. The list includes third-party commercial NoSQL databases, hyperscalers’ commercial NoSQL databases, open-source NoSQL databases, and SQL databases with document-format compatibility. Given the large number of players in this space and the potential for future technology to evolve, there is high uncertainty about customers’ perception of MongoDB’s long-term role in their tech stacks.

Read more about MongoDB’s risk and uncertainty.

MDB Bulls Say

• Demand for new applications powered by AI should continue to fuel growth for MongoDB.
• MongoDB Atlas should enjoy an extended growth runway as the cloud migration of OLTP databases is still at an early stage.
• MongoDB’s friendly user experience and free Community Server should continue to increase its penetration among the developer community and incentivize the adoption of commercial offerings.

MDB Bears Say

• The rise of new database technologies can reduce the number of optimized use cases for document-based databases, limiting MongoDB’s long-term growth potential.
• MongoDB faces heavy competition to earn AI-driven demand for new applications from SQL-based data pipelines.
• Competition could further intensify for MongoDB as hyperscalers and other NoSQL database vendors invest more resources into product development.

This article was compiled by Rachel Schlueter.