Two traders bet that the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation before the end of April with $13,200.

According to CoinWorld, based on monitoring by PolyBeats, on the prediction market Polymarket, two traders have collectively invested $13,200, betting on the “No” option for the question “Will the Strait of Hormuz resume navigation before April 30?” The average entry price for these bets is 45¢, and the current probability of the “No” option is 46%. The market widely speculates that U.S. President Trump, deeply concerned that soaring oil prices could trigger inflation and even undermine the petrodollar system, is trying to quickly declare “victory” to withdraw. However, Iran seems to have insight into the U.S. reluctance to enter a prolonged conflict and is escalating asymmetric tactics by deploying sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz to effectively blockade this global energy chokepoint. According to sources cited by CNN, Iran has recently placed dozens of sea mines in the strait to create a long-term deterrent against commercial shipping.

Based on the market’s definition of “resumption of navigation”: if, before April 30, the IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average of ship traffic (including container ships, dry bulk carriers, oil tankers, etc.) in the Strait of Hormuz reaches or exceeds 60 vessels, the market will settle as “Yes.” Note: Judging by their past trading patterns, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually happen but may close positions for profit or loss at a certain point after opening.

Accounts: 0x1c72797cd4b9b83f42e287144e334c4de347dfb6; 0xa81eefec9c08fa157d855f1ac5caf8feab1903dc.