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Based on the US February CPI data to be released tonight at 20:30, Bitcoin's short-term trend will diverge. Here is the analysis based on different data scenarios:
If CPI data exceeds expectations (>2.4%): The intensifying inflation pressure will reinforce market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer, leading to a stronger dollar and pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin is likely to decline, potentially testing the support zone of $68,000-$69,000 in the short term.
If CPI data meets expectations (=2.4%): It indicates that inflation has not worsened, aligning with the Fed's gradual easing path. The market may remain cautious, and Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate around $70,000, waiting for more macro cues.
If CPI data is below expectations (<2.4%): Signs of cooling inflation will boost expectations of rate cuts, weakening the dollar and increasing risk appetite. Bitcoin is expected to gain upward momentum, possibly breaking through the resistance of $72,200 and testing the $73,000-$75,000 range.#Gate蓝龙虾重磅上线