Cardano price prediction as ADA sets up pattern that led to 17,414% rally in 2020–2021

Cardano price could be approaching a key inflection point after a prolonged correction, according to crypto analyst Dan Gambardello, who argues that macro liquidity cycles and technical indicators resemble conditions that preceded the asset’s historic 2020–2021 rally.

Summary

• Gambardello says ADA’s monthly RSI reset and post-QT liquidity shift resemble the macro conditions that preceded Cardano’s 17,000%+ rally during the 2020–2021 bull market.
• According to Gambardello, major altcoins including Ethereum, ADA and Sui are “coiled” ahead of potential expansion if the broader business cycle strengthens.
• ADA is currently trading near $0.26, with $0.288 (50-day SMA) acting as the next resistance while $0.24–$0.25 remains immediate support, according to the TradingView chart analysis.

In a recent analysis shared on social media, Gambardello pointed to liquidity cycles tied to quantitative tightening (QT) and broader macroeconomic indicators as drivers behind Cardano’s (ADA) long-term market structure.

His chart suggests that previous periods of liquidity contraction followed by expansion have coincided with major rallies in ADA.

During the last cycle, Cardano surged roughly 17,414% from its pandemic-era lows to its 2021 peak, a move that occurred after global liquidity began expanding again following tightening phases.

Gambardello argues a similar setup could now be forming. According to the analyst, the monthly relative strength index (RSI) has fully reset, indicating that much of the speculative excess from the previous bull cycle has been cleared.

“Monthly RSI has been fully reset and the post-QT dip I’ve been warning about since January is nearly complete,” he said, adding that the business cycle appears to be expanding again, which historically supports risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

He also suggested that several major altcoins, including Ethereum and Sui, appear “coiled” for a potential breakout if macro conditions turn favourable.

Despite the bullish setup, Gambardello cautioned that outcomes remain uncertain, noting that markets can always move unexpectedly.

Cardano price analysis

From a shorter-term perspective, the TradingView chart shows Cardano trading around $0.258, continuing a gradual downtrend that began in mid-January.

Cardano price analysis | Source: Crypto.NewsPrice is currently below the 50-day simple moving average near $0.288, a level that now acts as the first major resistance. A break above this moving average would be needed to confirm early bullish momentum.

On the downside, $0.24–$0.25 appears to be the immediate support zone, where buyers previously stepped in following February’s sharp selloff.

A sustained breakdown below this area could expose ADA to a retest of $0.22.

Momentum indicators remain mixed. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) on the chart remains slightly negative, suggesting bearish momentum has not fully dissipated.

Taken together, the technical picture suggests that while Cardano remains in a short-term consolidation phase, analysts are increasingly watching macro liquidity trends and long-term indicators that could determine whether the asset begins a new expansion cycle similar to previous market phases.