Tonight's release of CPI data is one of the most important short-term market indicators. Currently, the Cleveland Fed and market expectations for February's nominal CPI are 2.4%, which is the same as the previous value, with a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, higher than the previous 0.2%. The core CPI annual rate is 2.5%, with a monthly rate of 0.2%, slightly below the previous figure. However, it is important to note that this data is for February and is unrelated to the current war. Therefore, even if the data isn't high, it shouldn't be simply interpreted as inflation pressures having been fully relieved. Recent rises in oil and gasoline prices are more likely to be reflected in upcoming inflation data.

This also means that if today's CPI exceeds expectations, the market will be more concerned about inflation becoming stubborn again. The Fed's subsequent shift towards easing expectations will be further diminished, and the pressure on risk markets will naturally increase. But even if CPI is below expectations, it will more likely lead to short-term sentiment relief rather than indicating that macro risks have been resolved. The real factor that will determine whether risk assets can continue to strengthen is not so much today's CPI data, but whether the war will continue to keep oil prices high and further transmit this into inflation data over the coming months.

For the market, the biggest fear has never been just war news, but rather the war reigniting inflation that was already gradually easing. Once oil prices stay high, both US stocks and cryptocurrencies will face renewed pressure of delayed rate cuts and continued tight liquidity. Especially during a phase where the market is repeatedly debating economic slowdown, interest rate paths, and risk appetite, fluctuations in energy prices will further suppress asset valuations.

This is also why, recently, although many risk assets have shown some rebound ability, they have consistently lacked the liquidity support needed for sustained upward movement. The impact of the war is not a single shock event but transmits through oil to inflation, then influences interest rate expectations, and finally feeds back into US stocks, gold, the dollar, and even high-volatility risk assets like BTC. For BTC, the long-term logic still exists, but in the short-term macro-driven phase, it remains difficult to completely detach from dollar liquidity.

Therefore, I personally lean towards viewing the current rise as a rebound rather than a reversal. The core reason is that liquidity has not fundamentally improved. Interest rates are still high, and what the market is seeing more now is emotional recovery—price corrections after short-term risk aversion eases—rather than a substantial macro shift. Especially with no fundamental changes in war, oil, inflation, or Fed monetary policy, the price increase appears more like a "reprisal" in a high-pressure environment rather than the start of a new trend.

A true reversal usually requires at least a sustained decline in inflation expectations, market stability in judging the Fed's policy path, and a willingness to continuously increase risk asset allocations. But from the current situation, we are still far from that. Inflation remains high, oil prices fluctuate at elevated levels, and monetary policy has not been fully loosened. Capital is still mainly chasing gains and selling off, especially in spot ETFs. Although recent weekly ETF inflows are mainly net, there hasn't been a significant increase in buying power; the recent reduction in selling is largely related to the price lows.