Two Sessions Preview: Will the economic growth target be set within a range? How can fiscal policy become more proactive?

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[Caixin] The 2026 National “Two Sessions” are approaching. The government work report, the draft outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and other documents will be submitted for review. What are the key topics of concern?

On March 5th, during the opening ceremony of the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Qiang will deliver the government work report, which will clarify the annual economic growth target. Everyone is paying attention to how 2026 will achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, providing space to reach long-term goals such as per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, while also realistically facing the challenge of a slowing economic growth rate.

Currently, market forecasts for the 2026 GDP growth rate target roughly fall into two categories: one set between 4.5% and 5%, and the other continuing the previous target of around 5% for 2023 to 2025.

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