Jefferies warns about threats to banks from stablecoins - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, the future

# Jefferies Warns of Threats to Banks from Stablecoins

The market capitalization of the “stablecoin” sector could reach $1.15 trillion in the next five years, leading to a gradual outflow of deposits from traditional banks. This was stated by Jefferies analysts, reports CoinDesk.

According to them, the rapid development of the segment is putting pressure on the profits of conventional financial institutions. While digital dollars are unlikely to cause a sudden withdrawal of funds, banks could lose 3% to 5% of their core deposits over five years. This will inevitably increase funding costs and reduce their profit margins.

“Do not ignore the medium-term risk of a gradual deposit outflow driven by new income opportunities and payment scenarios,” — experts noted

Stablecoins have already become a mainstay in crypto trading. After the US passed the Genius Act, their application expanded significantly, covering everyday transactions, treasury operations, and cross-border transfers.

By 2025, the adjusted volume of stablecoin transfers exceeded $11.6 trillion, a 49% increase from the previous year. As of writing, the total market value of fiat-backed tokens is $314 billion.

Source: DefiLlama Jefferies expects this figure to grow to $800 billion–$1.15 trillion by 2030. For banks, this is critical: stablecoins operate as digital cash 24/7 and provide access to DeFi platforms with yields higher than traditional accounts.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has already warned that the US system could lose up to $6 trillion in deposits. A similar opinion, citing US Treasury research, was expressed by the Institute of Banking Policy.

Long-term Threat

The key limiting factor is regulation. The current version of the market structure bill (Clarity Act) restricts the attractiveness of stablecoins as a savings instrument. However, the final adoption of the bill in this form remains uncertain.

“Clarity will establish stablecoins as payment rather than savings tools, closing the ‘yield loophole’ left in Genius,” — Jefferies stated

Some traditional financial giants are trying to adapt to new conditions. Fidelity Investments has already launched its own stablecoin, FIDD. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs are exploring similar options.

Experts estimate that banks with a high proportion of retail and interest deposits are most at risk of capital outflows. Jefferies analysts identified Wintrust, Flagstar, WBS, EagleBank, and Axos as the most vulnerable institutions.

Meanwhile, large institutional players and custodians already investing in crypto infrastructure are much better protected.

Recall that in January, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci accused US banks of “killing” stablecoins to benefit China.