Altseason is delayed: why are major assets growing while altcoins are stagnating

One of the most anticipated events of the current bull market has not yet occurred. The altseason — the season of altcoins flourishing — remains an elusive dream for traders and investors. While Bitcoin rose from $15,400 (November 2022) to its record high of $126,080, altcoins stayed in the shadows, showing sluggish development.

Why the altseason hasn’t arrived: an analysis of market asymmetry

The situation in the cryptocurrency market resembles a financial paradox. Gold added trillions to its market cap. U.S. stock indices hit record highs. Liquidity is practically pouring into traditional financial assets. Meanwhile, Ethereum, the expected locomotive of the altseason, is struggling to break through the $4,900 level — its only new peak in this cycle.

The root of the problem lies deeper than just the failure of altcoins. Analysts point to one critical reason: global liquidity is concentrated exclusively in low-risk assets. As long as investors are betting only on gold, bonds, and top stocks, risky assets remain unfunded. This explains why the altseason is postponed year after year.

With a few exceptions like ONDO, FET, SUI (and later SOL, BNB), the vast majority of altcoins not only failed to reach new highs along with Bitcoin but also continuously hit local lows. This disparity between the king of cryptocurrencies and the rest of the market indicates a complete reorientation of investor demand.

Historical lessons: how the altseason should have unfolded

History shows a clear pattern. In 2017 and 2021, during genuine bull markets, capital flow followed a predictable scheme: first into low-risk assets, then into Bitcoin, then into Ethereum, and finally into smaller-cap altcoins. It was a natural progression, where each level gained confidence from the success of the previous one.

But 2025 broke this pattern. Tariff wars, trade instability, and macroeconomic uncertainty created a long-term paralysis. Investors, frightened by external factors, retreated into their shells, choosing only defensive assets. They even ignored Bitcoin at certain stages, preferring stability over risk.

The result: the altseason did not start, even though all conditions seemed to point to its arrival. Bitcoin reached new heights. Ethereum approached a critical level. But liquidity still did not flow into the more risky segment of the market.

The return of the altseason: new conditions and a critical level for Ethereum

However, hope remains justified. Analysts, including the reputable Ash Crypto, predict that conditions are preparing to change. With three rounds of interest rate cuts expected in 2025, the winding down of central bank balance sheet reduction programs, and easing monetary policy, the market is entering a new phase.

When these macroeconomic factors align, liquidity will begin to reallocate. Capital will start flowing out of low-risk assets into more volatile instruments. The process will look like this: from traditional assets to Bitcoin, from Bitcoin to Ethereum, and then across the entire spectrum of altcoins.

There is one critical level that analysts see as a trigger for the altseason: Ethereum’s price of $5,000. This number has symbolic and technical significance. Currently, Ethereum trades at $2,010, leaving a substantial distance to this mark. When Ethereum not only touches $5,000 but also consolidates above this level, it will signal a recovery of market confidence.

Once this psychological and technical barrier is crossed, a chain of events could accelerate. Traders will get confirmation that the main altcoin is in good shape. Liquidity, cleverly parked in safe havens, will start its reverse flow. And then, finally, the altseason will emerge from the shadows.

Current market: retreat before the surge?

The current state of altcoins can be seen as accumulation before a breakout. Although prices have fallen from their all-time highs — Bitcoin is now at $69,690 (versus previous ATH of $126,080), and Ethereum at $2,010 (from a maximum of $4,950) — this may only be a temporary correction before a major reversal.

Key observation: the altseason is not canceled; it is merely postponed. The bullish market mechanism remains intact. As soon as investors gain enough confidence to shift capital toward risk, the altseason will take its turn. And history confirms: it will definitely happen.