【Major Bank Report】UBS Analysis on the Profit Sensitivity of the "Big Three Oil Companies" to Oil Prices: How Much Can Oil Stocks Gain if Oil Prices Reach $100?

SocialAnxietyStaker

2026-03-11 08:03:01

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Iran war heightens geopolitical tensions, intensifying oil price volatility, with prices once surpassing $100. UBS analyzed the profit sensitivity of China’s three major state-owned oil companies to oil prices and found significant differences in their earnings relative to oil price fluctuations. High oil prices benefit China National Petroleum Corporation (00857) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883), but if prices exceed $100, Sinopec (00386) profits will decline.

If oil prices exceed $100, Sinopec profits will decrease

UBS conducted scenarios with oil prices ranging from $50 to $120 per barrel. China National Offshore Oil Corporation shows high sensitivity to oil prices, while China National Petroleum Corporation’s profits increase as oil prices rise.

The basic scenario assumes Brent crude at $72 this year. If prices rise to $80, $90, and $100, China National Petroleum Corporation’s profits will increase by 11%, 26%, and 40%, respectively; China National Offshore Oil Corporation’s profits will increase by 16%, 35%, and 54%; and Sinopec’s profits will rise by 8%, 14%, and 13%. However, if prices exceed $100, Sinopec profits will decline.

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