The U.S. Democratic Party proposes a new bill to ban the opening of war and death-related contracts in prediction markets

On March 10th, U.S. Democratic lawmakers introduced a new bill aimed at prohibiting betting contracts on events such as war, assassination, and terrorism in prediction markets.

Named the "DEATH BETS Act," the proposal would directly restrict trading platforms registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The main sponsor of the bill, Senator Adam Schiff, stated on social media: “Betting on war and death creates an environment where insiders can profit from non-public information, which jeopardizes our national security and encourages violence. Congress must act.”

The bill comes at a time when prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are attracting large numbers of investors with their unique models. Users can place bets on political events, economic indicators, and even the outcomes of geopolitical conflicts. Previously, some platforms have offered contracts related to conflicts in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig announced in a public statement this Monday that the agency is working on establishing clear regulatory standards for prediction markets, including which products can be self-certified and how to evaluate different types of prediction market products.

The letter pointed out that such contracts pose serious national security risks, potentially incentivizing incitement of violence, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and disclosure of confidential information. The introduction of this bill may further tighten restrictions on contracts involving sensitive events like "war and death."

The bill is still subject to review by Congress. If ultimately passed, trading platforms registered with the CFTC will be explicitly prohibited from listing contracts related to terrorism, assassination, war, or death. This marks an important step forward in the regulation of prediction markets in the United States.

In summary, the bill not only represents lawmakers’ direct intervention in expanding the boundaries of prediction markets but also sets clearer regulatory red lines for the compliant operation of emerging prediction market platforms.

Whether driven by national security concerns or the prevention of market disorder, when "war and death" become tradable chips, this legislative debate on "what should not be bet" is writing a crucial chapter in the future of prediction markets.

#预测市场监管 #CFTC