Don't be surprised! Iran's oil exports are even higher than before the war.

The latest data shows that Iran is currently exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war, indicating that it still firmly controls this strategic waterway, which has effectively blocked other regional oil producers.

According to oil tanker tracking company Kpler, while Gulf Arab oil producers from Saudi Arabia to Iraq are reducing output and scrambling to find new routes around the Strait of Hormuz, Iran continues its trade activities as usual. Despite intense criticism from the U.S. and Israel, this provides Iran with an important “economic lifeline.”

Kpler data indicates that since the outbreak of war on February 28, seven oil tankers have loaded crude oil off Iran’s coast. At least two of the most recent loading operations took place outside the Persian Gulf. Over the past six days, these tankers have loaded an average of 2.1 million barrels of Iranian crude per day, higher than Iran’s February daily export of 2 million barrels.

Iran’s export levels fluctuate weekly, but recent increases suggest that, unlike other producers, its transportation has not been hindered, and major buyers’ demand for Iranian crude remains strong.

Since the U.S.-Israel conflict erupted and airstrikes began, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to attack any ships attempting to pass through the strait, deterring oil tankers and cargo ships traveling between the global markets and the Persian Gulf—an area that accounts for about one-third of the world’s oil production. Iran has launched drones and missiles at Gulf Arab oil producers and warned it will burn ships passing through the strait.

This crisis has raised fears of a “doomsday scenario,” with millions of barrels of oil leaving the market daily. Oil prices have fluctuated sharply in recent days—approaching $120 per barrel on Monday, then falling back below $80 after U.S. President Trump said the war would “end very soon.”

According to Kpler, most of Iran’s oil passing through or heading toward the strait appears to be transported by so-called “shadow fleets.” These old tankers used by Iran and Russia, often subject to U.S. sanctions, are used for covert oil shipments.

Other oil-producing countries’ exports and shipping remain constrained

While Iran continues to export oil, other Middle Eastern producers are still facing difficulties.

A JPMorgan report states that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for two weeks, Persian Gulf oil supplies could decrease by about 3.8 million barrels per day, accounting for over 3% of global production.

Last week, Trump announced that the U.S. military planned to escort ships through the Strait, but this has not yet been implemented. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy Commander Ali Reza Tangsiri warned against such escort missions. In a post on X, he stated, “Any passage by U.S. warships and their allies will be intercepted by a network of Iranian missiles and suicide drones.”

Lloyd’s Intelligence reports that since the start of the U.S.-Israel conflict, about 15 ships have crossed the strait, most of which are shadow tankers transporting Iranian crude to Asia.

Currently, Danish shipping giant Maersk has 10 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. Maersk says even if a ceasefire is reached, it will take at least a week to 10 days to resume normal operations.

Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said, “We will not put our colleagues in danger.”

Hark Island Gains Attention

It is worth noting that Iran’s continuous oil exports have drawn more attention to the country’s key oil hub, Hark Island, located in northern Persian Gulf. Previously, sources revealed that the White House was discussing deploying troops to seize Iran’s Hark Island and consider taking Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles.

A JPMorgan report earlier this week stated that after reports emerged that the Trump administration had discussed occupying this strategic export terminal, which handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports, market focus shifted to Hark Island. This small island, about one-third the size of Manhattan, is located in northern Persian Gulf, about an hour by boat from Iran’s coast, with antelope freely running near its oil facilities…

JPMorgan notes that most of Iran’s mainland coast along the Persian Gulf is shallow and muddy. Given that very large crude carriers (VLCCs) require a draft of 65-82 feet when fully loaded, without long offshore terminals or extensive dredging, approaching the island is difficult. Hark Island is closer to natural deep water, allowing large tankers to dock and load efficiently, and has benefited from decades of investment in oil storage tanks, loading terminals, and pipelines built during Iran’s oil expansion in the 1960s-70s. As a result, the island has become a pillar of Iran’s export system, handling most of the country’s crude oil transportation. It is a cornerstone of Iran’s economy and a major revenue source for the Revolutionary Guard.

According to JPMorgan, in the days before the U.S.-Israel strikes, Iran increased Hark Island’s exports to near record highs—loading over 3 million barrels per day from February 15 to 20, nearly triple the normal rate of 1.3-1.6 million barrels per day—indicating Iran was accelerating shipments ahead of expected escalation.

Hark Island’s storage capacity is estimated at about 30 million barrels. According to Kpler, about 18 million barrels of crude are currently stored there, equivalent to roughly 10-12 days of normal exports.

So why has Hark Island remained largely unaffected in recent conflicts? JPMorgan points out that, although often seen as a critical vulnerability, the island has rarely been directly attacked in modern conflicts due to the high geopolitical and economic risks. A direct strike would immediately halt most of Iran’s crude exports and likely provoke severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure.

During the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, U.S. advisors suggested occupying Hark Island to pressure Iran. President Carter imposed sanctions but did not order an attack. His successor Reagan prioritized protecting shipping and attacking Iranian ships and missile sites during the Iran-Iraq tanker war in the 1980s but did not target Hark Island. Although Iraq’s military attacked some terminals and tankers during the eight-year war, Hark Island remained operational, and damages could be quickly repaired, indicating that disabling it would require sustained, large-scale attacks.

So far, the U.S. military has tried to avoid striking Iran’s oil infrastructure.

JPMorgan states that if Hark Island is incapacitated, Iran would lose its storage buffer and lack feasible alternative export options, which would quickly halt its southwestern major oil fields. Up to half of Iran’s production (about 1.5 million barrels per day of exports) could be at risk.

JPMorgan notes that, so far, the global oil market has not fully felt shortages because ships dispatched before the escalation are still arriving: about 10 days to India, 21 days to China, and 10 days to Northwest Europe. This temporarily masks supply disruptions. However, within a week, as pre-conflict ships are consumed and new shipments are delayed, shortages may begin to emerge.

(Article source: Caixin)