Bitcoin bear market disagreements intensify: institutions warn of another 30% drop, Polymarket majority bets on BTC falling below 50,000

In March 2026, the crypto market struggles to find direction amid geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic tightening. Bitcoin’s price has nearly halved from its all-time high of $126,080, and debates over whether the bottom has already formed are intensifying. On one side, CK Zheng, founder of ZX Squared Capital, warns that BTC could drop another 30% below $50,000; on the other, data from decentralized prediction market Polymarket shows up to 62% of users betting that Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 this year. Meanwhile, institutions like Bernstein and VanEck are beginning to discuss the possibility of a bottoming out. Amid these fierce bullish and bearish disagreements, investors urgently need a multi-dimensional analytical framework to cut through the noise. This article, based on Gate market data and combining six key indicators—the four-year cycle, gold valuation model, long-term holder positions, ETF flows, the Fear & Greed Index, and Polymarket’s long/short ratio—objectively explores the potential evolution path of this bear market.

Market Anxiety Under Extreme Predictions

Recently, crypto investment firm ZX Squared Capital issued a stern warning: Bitcoin is deep in a bear market, influenced by the late 2024 cycle bottom and geopolitical tensions, with prices potentially falling another 30% within 2026, testing the $50,000 level or lower. This view is not isolated. Standard Chartered Bank also recently warned that BTC might dip before rebounding, initiating a fight to defend $50,000. Data from Polymarket quantifies this pessimism: over 60% of traders are betting with real money that BTC will drop below $50,000 this year, with 75% betting it will fall to $55,000.

However, market consensus has yet to form. Asset management giant VanEck’s CEO believes, based on historical cycle patterns, that the market is “building a bottom.” Meanwhile, Bernstein predicts Bitcoin will find strong support near $60,000 (the previous bull market peak) and begin recovery within the year. The sharp divergence among top institutions signals that the market has entered a highly uncertain “disagreement moment.”

Cycle Laws and Macro Pressures

To understand this divergence, we need to revisit key points in this cycle. According to Matrixport research, Bitcoin broke below its key one-year moving average in November 2025, a strong historical signal confirming the start of a bear market.

• April 2024: Bitcoin completes its fourth halving.
• October 2025: BTC hits a peak of $126,080, consistent with the historical pattern of peaking 16-18 months after halving.
• November 2025: Price falls below the one-year moving average, confirming bear market structure.
• February–March 2026: Geopolitical risks (e.g., Iran tensions) escalate, combined with delayed Fed rate cuts, boosting risk aversion, with BTC dipping to around $63,000.

Historically, Bitcoin’s bear markets last about 12 months. Using this as a guide, the bottom of this cycle might occur in Q3 2026, with a potential recovery in Q4.

Six Indicators for Bottoming Framework

On the factual level, we can objectively depict the current market state through six quantitative indicators:

Dissecting Market Sentiment: Deep Logic of Divergence

Current market views mainly split into two camps, rooted in differing interpretations of “driving forces.”

The bearish camp, represented by ZX Squared Capital and Standard Chartered, relies on microstructure and macro liquidity. ZX Squared points out that institutional pace remains slow, and some corporate treasuries holding BTC may be forced to sell due to debt pressures, creating a negative feedback loop of “decline and sell-off.” Standard Chartered emphasizes that ETF holders are largely underwater (average cost around $90,000); triggering stop-losses could lead to significant selling pressure.

The more optimistic or neutral camp, represented by VanEck and Bernstein, bases their view on historical cycle laws and macro substitution logic. VanEck believes the four-year halving cycle is an unavoidable “destiny” for Bitcoin, and 2026, as the fourth year, is a “bottoming year” paving the way for the next bull run. Bernstein, from an asset allocation perspective, notes that although BTC has weakened relative to gold, institutional participation (ETF assets around $165 billion) provides a solid support base.

Authenticity of the Narratives

The prediction by ZX Squared Capital (a further 30% drop to below $50,000) is a possible extrapolation based on current trends, not an established fact. Its logic—linked to the late cycle bottom and retail psychology—is supported by historical data.

Speculation: The market views the $50,000–$60,000 range as a key psychological threshold. Standard Chartered’s “defense of $50,000” and Bernstein’s “bottoming zone at $60,000” both point to this area as a strong support level confirmed after the previous bull run breakout (early 2024). Falling below this zone would severely challenge the entire bull market’s gains.

Fact: The market is indeed in “extreme fear” (index at 12), and on-chain data shows about 43% of supply is at a loss—objective facts. These can be interpreted as “weak market, heavy sell pressure” or “diminishing downside momentum, increasing reluctance to sell.”

Industry Impact Analysis

Regardless of where the bottom ultimately lies, the current deep bear market is reshaping the industry landscape:

• Industry reshuffling accelerates: Prolonged low prices threaten high-cost miners and over-leveraged companies. As ZX Squared warns, some may be forced to liquidate Bitcoin to repay debts, further cleaning market leverage.
• Product innovation: Bear markets are often construction periods. Traditional giants like BlackRock and Citadel are not slowing down their DeFi and real-world asset tokenization (RWA) initiatives despite price declines. This indicates a shift from mere price speculation to building deeper financial infrastructure.
• Regulation and political cycles: Matrixport research suggests Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may be closely tied to U.S. midterm elections. 2026 is an election year, and regulatory expectations could be a key variable influencing market direction in the second half.

Multi-Scenario Evolution

Based on the above, three potential scenarios can be projected:

Conclusion

The 2026 Bitcoin market is at a chaotic juncture, where the old cycle ends and a new one begins. ZX Squared Capital’s pessimistic forecast and Polymarket’s panic bets reflect current market anxiety; meanwhile, Bernstein and VanEck’s “bottoming” views represent a longer-term, calmer perspective. For investors, rather than fixating on the absolute bottom, it’s more prudent to use a multi-indicator system—especially monthly technical and sentiment indicators—to dynamically track the gradual formation of a “bottom zone.” Historical experience shows that true bottoms often emerge not amid cheers but in moments of extreme fear and minimal trading activity—when “no one is watching.” The key now is patience, waiting for the “final flush” and “reversal confirmation” signals to appear.