The nightmare war scenario is becoming reality in energy markets

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ENERGY ANALYSTS modelling a war involving Iran have long feared two developments: the Islamic Republic lashing out at its oil-rich neighbours and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of global seaborne crude and a fifth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transit daily. Until February 28th both eventualities seemed remote. Iran had too much to lose: it would push Gulf states even closer to America, its sworn enemy; anger China, the main buyer of its oil; and invite strikes on its own petroleum infrastructure.

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