SpaceX valuation to reach $1.75 trillion? Analyst: It can be worth this much in the long run

Global financial tracking firm PitchBook senior analyst Franco Granda stated that a valuation of $1.75 trillion for Elon Musk’s SpaceX in a potential IPO is “reasonable.”

Earlier today, well-known American entrepreneur Peter Diamandis wrote on social media that rumors suggest SpaceX will file for an IPO in March with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. The funds are expected to be used for Starship, lunar and Mars missions, and the Earth Dyson Sphere project.

Diamandis said this is “funding for the future of humanity,” adding, “This is not just a company going public — it’s civilization expanding outward.” Musk replied to the post with “Yes,” seemingly confirming the figure in the report.

In response, Granda from PitchBook added that achieving a $1.75 trillion valuation for SpaceX requires certain conditions: investors must be willing to commit to a three- to five-year investment cycle and tolerate the volatility amplified by Elon Musk.

Granda stated that if the IPO raises $50 billion, SpaceX will have sufficient funds to massively expand the Starship rocket, grow the Starlink satellite internet business, and build its direct-to-phone service network.

He estimates that at this valuation level, investors would assign SpaceX a market sales ratio of over 100x. In comparison, Palantir’s current price-to-sales ratio is about 77x, the highest among S&P 500 components.

Using a segmented valuation approach, referencing the highest market cap peers in Starlink and launch services, and adjusting multiples based on growth potential, Granda believes that a $1.75 trillion valuation is feasible. He added that this figure does not even include xAI.

He pointed out that the key debate around the valuation is whether investors are willing to give SpaceX a “platform premium.” The combination of Starlink user growth, launch market dominance, and direct-to-phone network development creates a business model that is almost nonexistent in public markets.

For Granda and others bullish on SpaceX, proving this target valuation requires investors to think long-term.

PitchBook projects that by 2040, SpaceX’s revenue could reach $150 billion, a roughly tenfold increase from nearly $16 billion last year. If this forecast materializes, its price-to-sales ratio would drop from about 110x to around 12x.

It should be noted that PitchBook’s optimistic model treats SpaceX’s space data centers and lunar bases as “bullish options,” but currently, these businesses contribute no revenue.

Granda warned that investors should prepare for “more volatility than Tesla.” Due to the low float post-IPO, any delays in key technological milestones could cause daily stock price swings of 20% to 30%.

Additionally, SpaceX faces regulatory hurdles. Granda pointed out that while the FAA has expanded SpaceX’s annual launch permits to 25, each rocket variant still requires environmental reviews, which are slower than SpaceX’s iteration pace.

“We believe regulatory delays are the biggest single risk to the 2026 launch schedule and the most likely factor to cause timeline extensions. Investors will need to price this in the future.”

(Source: Cailian Press)