What are the highlights of the 2026 National Two Sessions? Institutional forecasts analyze three key points

It’s that time of year again—the National Two Sessions.

From March 4 to 5, 2026, the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and the Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress will be held in Beijing, officially kicking off the annual Two Sessions. The meetings will set the tone for 2026’s economic development and major macro policies, and will announce quantitative indicators such as GDP growth rate, CPI increase, and fiscal deficit for the year.

2026 marks the beginning of the “14th Five-Year Plan,” and the content of the Two Sessions will concern both the present and the next five years of economic development. What are the key points to watch this year? CGTN Finance has summarized insights from multiple institutions.

Generally Expect GDP Growth Target to Be Around 4.5%–5.0%

Huatai Securities states that with many regions lowering their growth targets and under the context of “correct performance view” education, they expect the GDP growth target announced at this year’s Two Sessions to be slightly lower than last year’s around 5%, likely in the 4.5%–5.0% range.

CITIC Securities notes that at the regional level, under the central emphasis on “establishing and practicing a correct performance view,” provinces are setting more pragmatic GDP growth targets for 2026, aiming for “real, no-water growth.” Many regions are beginning to set growth ranges, with the overall central tendency slightly downward. Considering the decline in average provincial growth rates, they predict the national GDP growth target may be modestly lowered to around 4.5%–5.0%.

CICC reports that, among the 31 regions that have completed their local Two Sessions, Jiangxi has raised its 2026 GDP growth target, 21 regions have lowered theirs, 9 are roughly unchanged, and 11 regions aim for growth exceeding their 2025 actual growth. The weighted average GDP growth target for provinces in 2026 is 5.1%, down from 5.3% in 2025. Tianjin, Qinghai, Yunnan, and Liaoning set their targets at around 4.5%, while Heilongjiang, Shanxi, and Guangdong target 4.5%–5%. The remaining provinces mostly aim for 5% or slightly above. As major economic provinces, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang have targets of 4.5%–5%, 5%, over 5%, and 5%–5.5%, respectively. More than half of the regions prioritize stabilizing economic growth and expanding domestic demand this year, aligning with central economic policies.

Galaxy Securities also believes that the 2026 government work targets will be more pragmatic, with the GDP growth goal adjusted to around 4.5%–5.0%. This aligns with the central economic work conference’s focus on “optimizing growth” and “improving quality and efficiency,” leaving room for China’s economic fundamentals to shift from “land finance” to “developing new productive forces suited to local conditions.”

Continuing Efforts to Expand Domestic Demand and Promote Consumption

Galaxy Securities predicts that expanding domestic demand will be the top priority this year. The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference already emphasized this. It is a strategic move to counteract the accelerating changes in the world, stabilize growth through domestic demand, and meet the evolving consumption needs of residents, strengthening the domestic big cycle. Policies are expected to accelerate the development of a complete domestic demand system, leading new supply with new demand, creating a positive interaction between consumption, investment, supply, and demand, and advancing the construction of a unified national market.

CITIC Securities expects that “old-for-new” policies will remain a key tool for boosting consumption in 2026, with subsidies in the consumption sector possibly increasing to support services for the elderly and children.

Under the “old-for-new” policy, sales of related subsidized products grew rapidly in 2025. Based on the scale of funds allocated for supporting “old-for-new” consumer goods via ultra-long special government bonds in 2026 and the progress of 2025 fund allocations, it is estimated that about 250 billion yuan will be allocated in 2026 to support such initiatives. Expanding service consumption is also a major focus. CITIC Securities estimates that new consumption subsidies in 2026 will total around 50–100 billion yuan, mainly targeting elderly and childcare services.

CICC believes that, facing frequent overseas geopolitical events and insufficient domestic demand, consumption is expected to become a more important driver of economic growth. Policies to stabilize growth are increasingly tilted toward promoting consumption. These include optimizing supply, reducing restrictions, stabilizing expectations, and improving people’s livelihoods, with efforts such as upgrading goods, expanding service consumption, cultivating new consumption models, supporting consumption assistance, and creating diverse consumption scenarios.

Huatai Securities points out that last year’s central economic work conference emphasized policies on the demand side, including “insisting on domestic demand-led growth” and “building a strong domestic market,” with specific actions to boost consumption. Based on local government policy deployments, it is expected that this year’s policies will continue to expand “old-for-new” consumer subsidies, combining “promoting consumption” with “investing in people,” and vigorously supporting service consumption and emerging industries.

Intensifying “Involution” Competition Governance

Huatai Securities believes that deepening the rectification of “involution” competition and resolving structural conflicts in key industries will remain key tasks at the Two Sessions, with the promotion of dual-carbon policies serving as an important policy tool. Last year’s central economic work conference further refined the term “involution” to “deeply” rectify, and local governments are generally implementing “systematic reductions” to eliminate the root causes of involution.

CITIC Securities notes that since 2026, policy attention to “involution” competition has increased again, such as the January symposium by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on the “Three New” sectors. Although PPI growth and industrial profits have bottomed out and begun to recover, most manufacturing sectors still have weak profit margins, indicating limited pricing power. The fight against involution still needs to be pushed forward. Looking ahead, 2026 will likely see strengthened standards on quality, environmental protection, and energy consumption, promoting the accelerated exit of outdated and inefficient capacities.

(Source: CGTN Finance)