Thai Market Navigates Uncertainty as Global Trade Tensions Mount

The Thai stock market’s upward momentum has faltered, with the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) consolidating recent gains amid swirling global trade concerns. After a impressive four-day rally that propelled the index higher by approximately 65 points or 4.8 percent, the Thai benchmark has settled just above the 1,480-point level, signaling a potential pause in the rally. Market participants are bracing for continued volatility as U.S. tariff policy uncertainty ripples across Asian markets.

The SET managed only marginal gains in recent trading, advancing 0.53 points or 0.04 percent to close at 1,480.24, as strength in consumer and technology sectors was offset by weakness across financial and resource stocks. Trading volume reached 12.238 billion shares worth 85.887 billion baht. The day’s breadth was notably negative, with 361 declining stocks outnumbering 152 gainers, while 155 issues remained flat. This pattern suggests weakening buyer conviction despite the headline gain.

Sector Rotation Drives Thai Stock Divergence

The divergent performance across sectors reflects ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook. Advanced Info led gainers with a 0.52 percent rise, while most banking stocks—including Bangkok Bank, Kasikornbank, Siam Commercial Bank, and Krung Thai Bank—recorded declines ranging from 1.01 to 1.95 percent. Energy shares suffered more sharply, with PTT Oil & Retail plummeting 3.47 percent and Energy Absolute crashing 3.16 percent. Infrastructure and retail names also faced headwinds, as Thailand Airport surrendered 5.31 percent and BTS Group dropped 3.23 percent.

Conversely, certain growth-oriented stocks bucked the weakness. Thai Oil jumped 1.42 percent and True Corporation advanced 2.19 percent, suggesting selective buying in specific segments. SCG Packaging also vaulted 1.45 percent. However, defensive blue chips like Bangkok Dusit Medical (down 2.73 percent) and Bangkok Expressway (falling 3.33 percent) could not provide anchoring support to the broader market.

Wall Street Slump Casts Long Shadow Over Asian Trading

The pessimistic tone from U.S. equity markets weighed heavily on Thai investor sentiment. The Dow plummeted 821.91 points or 1.66 percent to 48,804.06, while the NASDAQ tumbled 258.79 points or 1.13 percent to 22,627.27 and the S&P 500 dropped 71.76 points or 1.04 percent to finish at 6,837.75. The broad-based Wall Street selloff came as the Supreme Court struck down most of President Trump’s sweeping tariff measures, creating fresh uncertainty about the direction of U.S. trade policy going forward.

The tariff reversal paradoxically spooked markets rather than reassuring them. Investors are uncertain about the timing and scope of any revised tariffs, leading to risk-off positioning across global bourses. Adding to the gloom, shares of IBM Corp tumbled following news that Anthropic’s Claude AI announced COBOL programming capabilities—a development that threatens IBM’s long-established dominance in business data processing systems. The combination of trade policy uncertainty and tech sector concerns spilled into Asian trading sessions, with Thai stocks reflecting this broader pessimism.

Commodity Weakness Underscores Demand Worries

Crude oil prices reflect mounting demand concerns tied to the same tariff uncertainty. West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery slipped $0.10 or 0.15 percent to $66.38 per barrel, as traders price in potential economic slowdown scenarios. Lower energy prices typically weigh on resource-heavy economies like Thailand, reinforcing downward pressure on local energy stocks.

The combination of external headwinds and internal sector rotation suggests that Thai shares may struggle to establish fresh conviction in the near term. With global policy uncertainty persisting and market breadth deteriorating, caution appears warranted for the Thai market near-term outlook.