3.2 Fighting again, you need to find a non-falsifiable new narrative logic

Node Analysis: [Taogu Ba]
The third board is a key turning point for Yunnan Energy. If Yunnan Energy does not give negative feedback, it has a positive effect on the echelon. Here’s an additional note: the same batch as 211 has already been repeatedly promoted by Ci and Mo, so pay attention to the Yunnan Energy break-up point at 226 as well. If future analysis shows it’s a first board node, you might target the same batch at 226, which could also hit Jinzengda.
Batch grouping is a very important concept. It’s used for main rise positioning and for judging clearing. When both show performance, but some haven’t yet, keep an eye on the long legs; if the batch’s elasticity or capacity hasn’t been fully corrected, some things in the batch still hold expectations.

The second board is a break from Yunnan Energy’s first to second, with Yunnan Energy opening at the daily limit this morning, which directly indicates a first-to-second node. The number of second boards also supports this. Huashengchang is present, and the chain density is high—trust what’s trustworthy. This batch of second boards was pre-arranged with insight, knowing they’d open over the weekend when the first board was pulled. I also mentioned over the weekend that Huashengchang, like the 623 variety last time, was directly pulled without changing models or stocks, plus Tefa Information—just pick the stocks.

The first board was driven by news, re-arranged. As mentioned above, the second batch was pre-arranged with insight, and the first batch is funded. China’s three oil giants pushed the limit-up, so what’s there to criticize? Today’s bidding I said not to chase oil and gas. If you have the courage to chase MoLong on turnover, that’s impressive. My principle remains: avoid T0 bulk stocks. Additionally, my personal understanding is that if you can’t do oil and gas, then do external enemies—tech or military industries. I am quite clear on my stance: I favor military industry informatization. Tomorrow, watch who opens higher between Leike and others in the first-to-second. Leike might open at one, and if there’s a good rally in Kuojie, it will rush to catch the heat.

Continuous Board Analysis:
Third board upgrade:
Taijia Co., the bidding was intimidating—obvious buy point, but I was afraid of resistance and didn’t buy. Actually, there’s acceleration expected. Many components, including computing power, can be leveraged, and later it can ferment aerospace and power supplies. Playing trends in power supplies is better, so if you believe in Taijia but dare not buy, buy aerospace at low expectations during Taijia’s overperformance. Today, many aerospace stocks like Western Materials and Aerospace Electronics showed movement.
Changyuan Donggu, this stock warrants attention. From a continuous board perspective, it’s a tool for Taijia, helping out. The node aligns with 226, and based on my previous understanding, there’s a trend expectation. Look for low-entry opportunities. The trend angle might be a successor to Liande, now included in Daoge’s low-entry stock pool.

Second board upgrade:
There are too many, I’ll skip some for simplicity.
Xiyesheng, Hunan Gold, Zhongxi Colored Metals, Huaxi Nonferrous, Fuling Power, China Ruilin—skip.
Taijing Technology, strange computing power—skip.
Shuifa Gas, some friends hold positions, but I don’t quite understand—skip.
Xinjinlu, from a stock perspective, small metals, guiding angle, Taijia.
China Tianying, Heme Group, methanol stocks—part of the same group, based on name and component chain, not interested.
Xianglu Tungsten, tungsten, 211 variety—trust your own judgment.
Huashengchang, “mouse warehouse” (small manipulations), volume isn’t large, so probably a “Jinfu” style play. My weekend expectation is to sell immediately if it opens at the limit.
Yasheng Group, non-ferrous rare earths, accelerated expectations, guiding angle, reinforcing Huashengchang’s expectations. The Yajia generation supporting cast template.
Fenghuo Communications, very strong today, optical fiber angle, linked with Changfei. Today’s bidding shows a 20cm straight line, looking for military + AI overlay. The first-to-second opened with a big red 5, simple setup.
Heshun Petroleum, insider in oil, chip restructuring, computing power players.
Litong Electronics, computing power players, performance stocks, but a few days ago a super big downtrend line gave a buy point below the ten-day line—dangerous. No continuous board trend acceleration, but some computing power institutions are good stocks. Suggest blacklisting problematic stocks.
Great Wall Technology, suspected chain—does Great Wall want to pretend to be Great Wall Military Industry? Skip.

First Board:

Non-ferrous Power Grid—skip.
Duliang, Jiangshun, Jiangsu, Jiuan—good names.

Oil & Gas + Shipping:

1. All three oil giants hit the limit today—volume and strength are solid.
2. Fear of ceasefire logic being falsified; some T0 bulk commodities rely on news. I don’t like to gamble in controlled local situations, treating myself as chips. Personally, I won’t participate; missing out on oil, gas, and shipping, I’ll go for military and enemy tech.
3. From a sustainability perspective, as mentioned, it’s news-driven.
4. Sector strength: mainly watch for oil, MoLong, and Jinniu; Jinniu might hit Jinniu Rui. Expect MoLong to open straight up.
5. Theoretically, if you could buy MoLong today, tomorrow any turnover buy might have issues. Buying points only if bought overnight or if you find some ultimate logic, or expectation gap, then accept turnover, right?

Substitution in the Export Industry Chain:
First entry time:

1. Same logic as above—easy to falsify.
2. If you’re doing news gambling, why not just buy oil, gas, and shipping directly? Why go around saying “if it starts fighting, I dare not buy oil”? Just buy the industry chain substitution—though it’s hard to evaluate.
3. From a sustainability perspective, same as above—I personally don’t buy into it.
4. I believe this round of chemical market trend isn’t as good as small metals.

Military Industry:

1. The logic is also war-themed, but the difference is that oil & gas directly rely on news—simple logic: if fighting, then limit ports; if fighting, then oil prices rise. But military industry’s logic involves new informatization warfare and drone strikes. Once fighting starts, it rewrites war narratives. The Gulf War taught how to fight modern wars; this time is similar. Once fought, it rewrites industry thinking. Ceasefire doesn’t falsify the logic; it’s like the Chengfei military trade order expectation—once fought, it’s effective, no withdrawal.
2. Mainly about informatization, drones, radar, navigation, and drones—choose stocks yourself. The bottom line is bidding above Leike, unless it’s a top-tier exhaustion straight line.
3. With historical memory from Chengfei, a foundation. Excluding Zhongtian Rocket—its chart and stock price have issues.
4. From a sustainability perspective, the downside is that pioneers are flexible and have arbitrage thoughts; the upside is that the logic isn’t falsified. Refer to point 1; later, aerospace and even satellites can ferment, forming a hidden line.

Nvidia Computing Power:

1. Focus on low entry; institutions don’t like continuous boards anymore—no longer the era of Qing Shan Paper’s CPO shipments.
2. Whether Cambridge’s limit-up counts as a bottoming signal—don’t rush; continue observing. Feilong today didn’t move much in computing power liquid cooling, mostly military.
3. Tefa Information shows insight.

Tomorrow’s Observation Plan:

1. Oil & gas shipping: ensure enough one-word limit-ups; also watch the premium of the three oil giants. If not strong enough, will the three oil giants hit the limit-up?
2. Military informatization: check for one-word or big red bids in drones, missiles, navigation, satellites, etc.
3. Computing power: watch Nvidia’s response. The past two days, even with external declines, it rose. If computing power rises, Taijia might open at one. Combining military and computing power stocks could be a good choice (if both have one-word).

Today’s Bidding Strategy:

1. Huaru hit the one-word limit-up. I don’t do flexibility—I look for Beijing, military, AI. There is Leike, Kuojie, Huasheng Tiancheng—I won’t go for Huasheng Tiancheng or Leike. Fenghuo is the most direct.
2. Computing power opened low, but Changfei exceeded expectations. I hold my low-open computing power stocks. Of course, Geer opened at one and was bid down; Xinju was also bid down but I took profits and left.
3. Power sector strength was weak; Huayin waited for a surge and then left.

Tomorrow’s Plan:

1. Missed the buy point for Taijia today; if there’s a buy point tomorrow, it won’t be cheap.
2. Winter Mushroom currently has no buy point at the limit; look for trend low-entry points in the next five days. Will elaborate once formed, but the tip is to focus on trend low entries for Winter Mushroom. Mark the same batch at 226 first.
3. Second-to-third echelon: all stocks I like are in my hands; no new opening plans. Usually, it’s hard to buy the “mouse warehouse” later. New themes might only recognize the first board. Fenghuo might give way later, similar to Nankuang during Yaxia. This also reflects my idea: I don’t participate in the main theme stocks I’ve trapped in the Yaxia model, which isn’t the Four Great Kings model. I prefer logical expectation gaps.
4. First-to-second expansion: I think this isn’t a small-cap game. When the three oil giants hit the limit-up, talking about buying small stocks with me is a bit absurd. Consider new positions in military informatization, drones, etc. Compare Rainbow and navigation stocks—who opened higher than Leike? Focus on tomorrow’s expected premium. If it opens low tomorrow, it’s not hard to choose.

Triple Pool Overlap Stocks:
As for what the triple pool overlap is, don’t ask in the comments—I won’t look. Those who read the big刺 comments understand. I’ll post this once today; no more screenshots later. It’s not an absolute reference. If you don’t understand, ignore it. The above content is enough for you.

Trend Thinking:
Top five in ten-day gains: Tongyuan Petroleum, Yunnan Energy Holdings, Saens, Potential Hengxin, Xiangming Intelligent
Top five in five-day gains: Yunnan Energy Holdings, Jiangwu Equipment, Dingguo Chuang, Saens, Roman Shares
This is used to observe current trend themes or profit effects. Previously, it was Changfei with a string, a few days ago Mingyang Smart with gas turbines, LianDe came out after that—long-term winter mushroom. No clear trend direction or stocks yet.
Trend Observation Stocks:
Changfei’s high-low angle, Hengtong, Zhongtian—recently Hengtong’s strength exceeds Zhongtian. I cut Hengtong and give it more attention.
Dazu, Dongcai—first refuses to correct, but today clearly preparing for cost-effective buy points; the latter hasn’t started yet, so reduce buying willingness, continue observing.
Newly watch Cambridge, wait for effective bottoming.
Fenghuo Communications, after the limit-down, consider trend low-entry opportunities. Long-term winter mushroom also, currently expecting Liande as successor.