[Red Envelope] Trend Flow vs. Hedging Direction — Pick a Side

Monitoring the market can reveal early opportunities, while reviewing past trades helps clarify direction. [Taogu Ba]
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Monitoring and reviewing are already ways to understand others; the next step is to understand oneself, and finally, choose the right time to act.**
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Stock trading isn’t based on guesses. Those who profit often have one of two qualities: foresight (prediction) or adaptability during trading (following).**

Market Overview:
The three major indices fluctuate differently: the Shanghai Composite closed in the green, the Shenzhen Composite in slight red. Overall, they opened low and moved higher, which is rare amid external geopolitical conflicts. The Shanghai index attempted to break new highs but failed, then started to decline. It has held the 211 level for four consecutive days. Market volume increased to 3.02 trillion yuan compared to yesterday. Weekly change: Monday saw an increase of over 4000 points.
In the short term, oil & gas, military, and metals surged strongly. AI hardware and domestic computing power sectors rotated healthily internally, while chips and semiconductors saw intraday adjustments. Overall, intraday selling was relatively mild, with core stocks in hot sectors under slight pressure, slightly exceeding expectations, leading to a safe intraday rally.
The number of stocks hitting the daily limit was 87, down from 75 yesterday. The success rate of hitting the limit was 79%, down from 83%. The number of stocks in the consecutive limit-up tier increased from 11 to 20.

Consecutive Limit-Up Tier:
3-limit: Taijia Co. (power supply for computing), FiberHome Technologies (fiber optics, military, aerospace, power, etc.), Changyuan Donggu (diesel engines)
2-limit: China Tianying (hydrogen energy), Xinjinlu (metals), Xiyesheng (metals), Hunan Gold (metals), Hemei Group (hydrogen energy), Xianglu Tungsten (metals), Huashengchang (electric power), Yasheng Group (agriculture), Zhongxi Youse (metals), Huaxi Nonferrous (metals), Fuling Power (electricity), China Ruilin (metals), Shui Fa Gas (hydrogen energy), Heshun Petroleum (oil & gas), Litong Electronics (computing power), Taijing Technology (CPO), Great Wall Technology (robots)

From the perspective of the tiered limit-up stocks: the market’s high point saw Yunnan Energy Investment’s attempt to break into the 8th limit-up fail, but the intraday final rebound was positive, boosting short-term sentiment. This laid a solid foundation for future breakout attempts. The downward tier dropped sharply to 3-limit stocks, with sectors like computing power, electricity, and metals/energy entering the limit-up view, while the 2-limit tier surged against the trend intraday.

First praise, then observe; develop a good habit of persistence and continuous gains daily.
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Market Summary:
Trend directions: AI hardware, domestic computing power, domestic chip and semiconductor industry chain.
Safe-haven sectors: Oil & gas, military, metals, energy, etc.
Rotation sectors to watch: Aerospace, robotics, etc.

1. Trend Directions: AI hardware, domestic computing power, chips, semiconductors, etc.
1. AI Hardware: Currently two main themes: pre-holiday price hikes and post-315 GTC conference potential LPU logic, involving segments like Q-boards, copper foil, multi-layer substrates, probes, drill bits, optical fibers, MCLL, etc.
Major stocks: Yizhong Tian Shengfu.
Intraday, Tianfu Communication saw two small news updates (Xinyi Sheng and Xuchuang also involved in Tianfu’s business; Guangfa Communications also had a related note), which caused a sharp rise then sudden drop.
Xinyi Sheng and Xuchuang rotated to strength, while Foxconn Industrial Internet remained sluggish, and Shenghong Technology pulled back to the five-day moving average for healthy correction.
The sector’s sustainability mainly depends on these stocks; if a day sees a broad decline, it signals the end of the hype. Conversely, healthy internal rotation is normal, often alternating between PCB and CPO stocks.
Within segments, optical fiber and PCB tools strengthened intraday.
Other segments mostly corrected.
Strength: CPO rotated with PCB intraday.
Beneficiary stocks mostly remain those identified last week; most are trending above the five-day moving average, no bearish signals yet.
Overall, in the morning, strong segments led the rally, but in the afternoon, the Shanghai index failed to challenge new highs, causing a decline. The strong segments followed the decline, while the weaker ones continued to fall. Future focus should be on internal segment rotation and index correlation.

2. AI Computing Power (domestic chain), mainly H as the core of the computing power industry chain intraday.
Sentiment: Yunnan Energy Investment (electricity + computing power), despite losing the 8th limit-up, remains a market hero, boosting short-term gains.
Old leaders: Wangsu Technology, Runze Technology, both correcting intraday.
Second wave crossing: Litong Electronics, trending stocks on the five-day line, currently in a second consecutive limit-up, positively impacting the sector’s outlook.
Trend stocks: Roman Co., a stronger version of Litong, under strong institutional control.
Downward, power-related stocks with 2-limit-ups entered the tier.
New segments mainly focus on H as the core of computing power.
Sentiment segment: Taijia Co., power supply, if continued strong, could boost expectations for Taihao Technology.
Main board: Huasheng Tiancheng, following Wangsu and Runze, marks a new core for computing power on the main board, the first since Wangsu to show strong resilience, still trending above the five-day moving average.
Main board trend: Chuanrun Co.
ChiNext trend: Shenling Environment.
ChiNext flexibility: Gaolan Co., etc.
Most of the previous computing power hype stocks corrected, some crossing, new segments mainly related to power supplies and liquid cooling, with continued focus on Huasheng and Taijia. Sector movements tend to be opposite to AI hardware, but overall positive, similar to pre-holiday AI and aerospace rotation.

3. Chips and Semiconductors: Mainly benefiting from increased capacity in storage-related industries, including domestic expansion of storage chips.
Major stocks: Cambrian, gradually gaining momentum; a big rally would signal sector strength.
Target materials: Jiangfeng Electronics, Oulai New Materials, Longhua Technology, Yanyan New Materials.
Semiconductor equipment: Changchuan Technology, Tuojing Technology, etc.
Packaging & testing: Changdian, Tongfu, Huatian, still rotating.
Cleanroom equipment: Yaxiang Integration.
Most chip-related stocks are correcting; intraday, little movement, mainly trend-based, no emotional stocks driving the sector yet, awaiting rotation.

4. AI Applications:
Main board: Lio Co., limited support, wait for opportunities; other stocks lack interest.

2. Safe-Haven Sectors:
Chemicals (with crossover attributes, not purely safe-haven):
Leading stocks: Baichuan Co., Runtu Co., both showing deep water pullbacks with long legs; Runtu’s legs are longer.
Limit-up attempt by Jinchengda failed today.
Lower segment stocks are still trying to ferment; mid-to-high level stocks face difficulty breaking higher, the biggest challenge for the sector.

Oil & gas, military, metals, etc.:
Oil & gas surged to the limit, except for Shouhua Gas, all 19 stocks hit the limit.
Heavyweights: China National Petroleum and Sinopec both hit the limit.
Metals also surged.
Military stocks underperformed slightly compared to metals and oil & gas; for example, Xiangxiang Technology and Huaru Technology hit the limit, others are more random.
Sector sustainability depends on further US-Iran conflicts; those optimistic today have already entered early, making it a feast for holders, with high difficulty in catching the next move.

3. Rotation Sectors to Watch: Aerospace, robotics, etc.
Aerospace:
Juli Sorgue, representing recovery-related core stocks.
Aerospace Development, a deeply fallen veteran sector.
Guxin Integration, a veteran in the photovoltaic sector.
Intraday, Aerospace Development performed well, while the other two declined.
Deep correction recovery: pre-holiday Shenjian Co., last week Zai Sheng Technology, today Leike Defense, etc., with continuous rotation.
Overall, sector dynamics shifted from pre-holiday rotation with AI, to post-holiday lagging, awaiting new rotation opportunities. Many stocks are stabilizing or rebounding from lows, possibly leading to a rebound wave. Keep an eye on Aerospace Development.

Robotics:
Basically dormant, waiting for wind.

4. Summary:
Overall, the market saw a decline of over 4,000 stocks intraday, but sentiment and indices performed better than expected amid geopolitical tensions.
Leading stocks in hot sectors showed strong resilience, indicating that selecting good stocks minimizes risk in intraday trading.
Trend and safe-haven sectors act as a seesaw, mainly anchored by external conflicts and market reactions.
Simply put, bullish on the trend, cautious on safe-haven; follow the market’s cues.
Market movements are straightforward: choose your side based on your risk preference.

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These are personal insights; they may not suit everyone. This is how I currently operate. If you find it unsuitable, just ignore it. No need for harsh words. If it helps you, I am pleased.
The bull market in A-shares is ongoing, but it’s within individual stocks, not the index. The key is to catch the bull stocks; if you do, you’re in a bull market. If not, even if the index rises, it’s still a bear market for you.
Disclaimer: The above review, posts, and comments are for entertainment and reference only, not for investment decisions. Do not trade solely based on this. The stock market involves risks; invest cautiously! Remember, there are no stock gods in A-shares!
Note: Stocks mentioned in the article and below #￥ do not represent holdings or endorsements. Do not follow blindly.
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Hope readers find value in this analysis.

Disclaimer: This article records my personal operations. Investing involves risks. Trade cautiously. Plans can’t keep up with market changes. Follow the market movements. The content reflects my personal thoughts and records, for sharing only, not investment advice. Trade at your own risk.

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