#CryptoMarketBouncesBack 1. The Energy Chokepoint: Why Oil is the "Lead" Risk
Brent crude’s climb above $80–$83 isn't just about supply; it's about the "Hormuz Premium."
The 20% Rule: Since the Strait handles roughly 20% of global oil and 25% of LNG, even a partial disruption creates a "stagflationary" shock—simultaneously raising costs while threatening global growth.
Secondary Effects: We are seeing the "Phase Two" impact where insurance premiums (AWRP) for tankers have jumped 50–100 basis points, ensuring that even if the missiles stop, the high costs of transport will linger in CPI dat