Tianfeng Securities: The Main Recovery Trend After Global Risk Off

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According to a research report from Tianfeng Securities, the global financial markets have recently experienced adjustments, and their future trends are diverging. It is expected that U.S. stocks will remain volatile and rise before the midterm elections, mainly supported by easing geopolitical conflicts, improved economic outlooks, and expectations of interest rate cuts. U.S. Treasury yields are likely to decline in the short term under a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, but due to fiscal, tariff, and geopolitical uncertainties, the term and inflation premiums may increase. The U.S. dollar is expected to rise initially and then fall in the short term, while the Chinese yuan may fluctuate within a narrow range. Gold may experience wide fluctuations in the short term but is expected to regain an upward trend within the year. Oil prices are influenced by U.S.-Iran relations and may fluctuate upward in the short term, while domestic stock markets may be volatile before the Spring Festival, with a potential “spring rally” after the holiday.

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